Name: Trump approval rating on April 17?
End: 2026-04-18T00:00:00.000Z

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Trump approval rating on April 17? | PredictPedia

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6 markets tracked

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	99%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 17, 2026?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, April 19, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump approval rating on April 17?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 18, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 17, 2026.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 17, 2026.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This ma"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $28.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.52)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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17¢

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Trump approval rating on April 17?

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Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

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Events (1)

Trump approval rating on April 17?

Markets (6)

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

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Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

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Trump approval rating on April 17?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

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