Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

Name: Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$34.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $34.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $34.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$34.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Iran strike on US military - Iran Strike on Israel - Iran strike on Qatar Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporti

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Iran strike on US military
- Iran Strike on Israel
- Iran strike on Qatar

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporti

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Iran strike on US military
- Iran Strike on Israel
- Iran strike on Qatar

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $34.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Y5gdzn" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition"></iframe>

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Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

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Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)