The 2026 election for Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District (WI-06) will determine who represents the district in the U.S. House of Representatives for the term beginning in January 2027. WI-06 covers a large swath of east-central Wisconsin, including the cities of Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, and parts of the western suburbs of Green Bay. The district has been represented by Republican Glenn Grothman since 2015. Grothman has held the seat for six terms and is a member of the House Freedom Caucus. The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) rates WI-06 as R+8, meaning it leans significantly Republican. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the district by roughly 12 points. This makes the general election heavily favored for the Republican candidate, though primary challenges can introduce uncertainty. The district's boundaries were redrawn in 2024 after a Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling that struck down the previous Republican-drawn maps as unconstitutional. The new maps, enacted by the Democratic governor and legislature, made WI-06 slightly more competitive but still safe for Republicans. The 2024 election under the new maps saw Grothman win with 57.8% of the vote against Democrat John Zarbano, a margin of about 15 points. This was down from his 2022 margin of 22 points under the old maps. The primary election for the 2026 cycle will likely occur in August 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026. Grothman has not announced whether he will seek reelection. If he retires, an open seat could draw a crowded primary field on both sides. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted WI-06 as a potential pickup opportunity, though it remains a long shot. National observers rate the race as "Solid Republican" or "Likely Republican" for 2026. The outcome will affect the narrow Republican majority in the House, which was 218-213 after the 2024 election. Any shift in control of the House could hinge on races like this one, especially if the national environment shifts toward Democrats in the midterms.

Historical Context

Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District has been represented by Republicans since 1993, when Tom Petri took office. Petri held the seat for 22 years, retiring in 2015. Glenn Grothman, then a state senator, won the open seat in the 2014 election and has held it since. The district was originally drawn to be safely Republican, with a PVI of R+8 under the 2011 maps. The 2024 redistricting changed the district's boundaries significantly. Under the old maps, the district included the city of Appleton and more rural areas. The new maps moved Appleton to the 8th district and added more of Sheboygan County. The change reduced the Republican lean from R+10 to R+8, according to Cook. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won WI-06 by 13 points. In 2024, under the new maps, he won by 12 points. The district has not elected a Democrat since 1992, when the current map did not exist. The last Democrat to hold the seat was David Obey, who represented the 7th district until 2011. The 2026 election will be the second held under the new maps. The first, in 2024, saw a 15-point margin, down from 22 points in 2022 under the old maps. This suggests the new map is somewhat more competitive, though still safe for Republicans. The 2026 midterm will also be the first election under the new maps without a presidential race on the ballot. Midterm turnout typically favors the party out of power, which could help Democrats. In the 2022 midterm, Democrats outperformed expectations nationally, but Grothman still won by 22 points. The 2026 environment will depend heavily on President Donald Trump's approval ratings, the state of the economy, and national political trends. Wisconsin has been a key battleground state in recent elections, with razor-thin margins in presidential races. The 2022 Senate race between Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes was decided by 1 point. This volatility could affect downballot races like WI-06, especially if the national environment shifts.