This prediction market topic concerns whether Canadian pop star Justin Bieber will achieve a number one hit on the Billboard Hot 100 chart by the end of 2026. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if Bieber, either as a lead artist or featured performer, has a song reach the top position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated for the week ending December 27, 2026. This timeframe provides a clear, objective benchmark based on the definitive music industry chart published by Billboard. Justin Bieber is one of the most commercially successful artists of the 21st century, with a career spanning over 15 years since his discovery on YouTube in 2008. His chart history includes eight previous number one singles on the Hot 100, with his most recent being 'Stay' with The Kid LAROI in 2021. Interest in this market stems from questions about Bieber's current career trajectory, his health following a 2022 Ramsay Hunt syndrome diagnosis, his evolving musical direction, and the competitive landscape of pop music. Analysts and fans are watching to see if he can reclaim the chart dominance he held in the 2010s or if his career is entering a new phase with different commercial priorities.

Historical Context

Justin Bieber's relationship with the Billboard Hot 100 chart is extensive. He first reached number one in 2015 with 'What Do You Mean?', which began a historic run where he became the first artist to debut at number one with three consecutive singles from the same album ('Purpose'). His chart dominance continued with 'Sorry' and 'Love Yourself', both of which also reached number one. In 2017, 'Despacito (Remix)' with Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee spent 16 non-consecutive weeks at number one, tying a record at the time. His most recent number one was 'Stay' with The Kid LAROI in August 2021, which spent seven weeks at the top. However, his chart performance has been inconsistent since then. His 2021 album 'Justice' produced the top-ten hit 'Ghost', but no number ones. His last solo single to chart on the Hot 100 was 'Honest' in 2022, which peaked at number 49. This historical pattern shows periods of immense chart dominance followed by quieter spells, making his potential return to the summit a subject of speculation. The music industry landscape has also shifted dramatically since his peak, with streaming now dominating chart calculations and shorter song cycles.

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