Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event resolves on the margin of victory in the 2026 TX-30 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract. Most ask whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, such as 60%-65% or 70% or more. One asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins outright [1].

Several rule details affect how a price should be read. The source states that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Resolution depends on the official count, and the source says the market resolves "based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The source also says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a stated expectation in the rules, not a confirmed event date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-10-17T16:03:21.633Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes and should not be treated as current beyond that time. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1], which is a contract closing time and is not the same as the election date or the date results become official.

All ten saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Even so, the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The listed Yes prices range from 0.0185 to 0.235 [1]. The largest Democratic band in this snapshot is 60%-65%, at 0.235 [1]. The Republican win contract is 0.03 [1].

These Yes prices add up to more than 1 across the saved contracts. That is expected for separately priced contracts. It also shows why the prices should not be read as a single verified probability distribution. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and this sample comes from one platform only.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not establish trading activity, liquidity, or how many participants hold a view. Volume, if present, is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. Because the evidence contains only one source, it cannot confirm how these prices compare with other platforms, and differences in wording or closing times should be checked before any comparison is made.

References

1. Polymarket: TX-30 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.