$121.88K
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$121.88K
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2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Forsen breaks xQc's In-Game-Time of 14:27.035 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for Forsen to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe. For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting fr
Prediction markets currently give Forsen roughly a 1 in 4 chance of beating xQc's Minecraft speedrun record before the deadline in late March. With about 27% probability, traders collectively believe a successful record-breaking run is unlikely, though not impossible. This indicates low confidence that the multi-year challenge will be resolved in Forsen's favor within the next five weeks.
The low probability stems from the specific difficulty of the record and Forsen's long history with it. xQc's record time of 14 minutes and 27 seconds, set in 2021, is for a specific category: beating the Ender Dragon in Minecraft's 1.16.1 version on a random seed. This requires not just skill, but an exceptional degree of luck with randomly generated worlds and items. Forsen, a veteran streamer, has been attempting to reclaim the record for years during his regular "Forsen vs. Minecraft" streams, accumulating thousands of failed attempts. The market odds reflect that after so much time and effort, a successful run remains a low-probability event, even with consistent trying.
The only concrete deadline is the market's resolution date of March 31, 2026. Every live stream where Forsen attempts a speedrun is a potential event that could shift the odds, especially if he posts a time very close to the record. A major shift would likely require him achieving a new personal best that signals he is in peak form. The probability will drop to zero if he publicly stops attempting runs before the deadline, or if the deadline passes without a success.
Markets on niche, binary outcomes like this can be reasonably accurate when they attract informed participants who understand the specific community and challenge. In this case, the traders are likely viewers familiar with the speedrun scene and Forsen's progress. The main limitation is the high role of randomness. A prediction market can assess the likelihood based on historical data and current form, but a single lucky seed could defy the odds at any moment. The forecast is a measure of consistent probability over time, not a guarantee of what will happen in one specific attempt.
The prediction market assigns a 27% probability that Forsen will break xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31, 2026. With shares trading at 27¢ for "Yes," the market views a successful record attempt as unlikely within the timeframe. This price suggests bettors see a roughly 1-in-4 chance, indicating significant skepticism despite the long deadline.
The low probability stems from the specific challenge's history and Forsen's recent trajectory. xQc's record of 14 minutes and 27 seconds, set in 2020, is a highly optimized time for the Minecraft 1.16.1 random seed speedrun category. Forsen, a longtime streamer known for marathon "record attempt" sessions, has pursued this goal for years without success. His attempts often number in the thousands per "season," and he has not come close to the record in recent memory. The market pricing reflects a consensus that pure grinding may not overcome the skill ceiling and luck required for a sub-14:27 run. Furthermore, interest in this specific gaming rivalry has faded since its peak around 2020-2021, lowering expectations for a dedicated, successful push.
A sustained shift in odds would require observable proof of progress. If Forsen begins a new dedicated attempt series and consistently posts personal best times near 15 minutes, the "Yes" share price would likely rise. Conversely, if he publicly abandons the challenge or focuses on other games, the probability could fall toward 10% or lower. The two-year window is long, so odds may stay depressed until he actively streams attempts. Significant volatility is probable only during a new, focused "speedrun season" on his stream. The market may slowly drift toward "No" without such a catalyst, as the resolution deadline in March 2026 acts as a final, non-negotiable time limit.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market centers on whether Swedish live streamer Sebastian 'Forsen' Fors will break the Minecraft speedrun record set by Canadian streamer Félix 'xQc' Lengyel. The specific challenge involves completing a random seed speedrun of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1 in a faster In-Game Time (IGT) than xQc's record of 14 minutes and 27.035 seconds. A qualifying run must be performed live on stream before the market's deadline of March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The competition is a direct continuation of a multi-year rivalry between two of the most prominent figures in the 'Just Chatting' and gaming categories on Twitch. Interest stems from the intense, often humorous fan engagement surrounding their attempts, which have generated millions of collective views and defined a niche subculture within live streaming. The market quantifies a long-standing community debate about which streamer will ultimately hold the superior time, transforming online banter into a tradable event. The specific version and ruleset (random seed, any%) create a controlled environment where skill and luck intersect, making each attempt a high-stakes spectacle for their audiences.
The rivalry between Forsen and xQc in Minecraft speedrunning began in earnest in late 2020. Both streamers, already popular figures, started attempting speedruns of Minecraft Java Edition 1.16.1, focusing on the 'any%' category with a random seed. This category requires players to defeat the Ender Dragon as quickly as possible without using pre-determined seeds or major glitches. xQc set a highly competitive time of 14 minutes and 27.035 seconds in 2021. This record quickly became a white whale for Forsen, who commenced a dedicated, almost daily grinding session to beat it. This period, often referred to as the 'Minecraft meta,' dominated both of their channels for months and attracted hundreds of thousands of concurrent viewers. The competition was punctuated by near-misses, dramatic runs ended by bad luck, and intense community interaction. Although both streamers have since diversified their content, Forsen has returned to attempt the record periodically, keeping the rivalry alive. The longevity of xQc's record, surviving years of attempts by a dedicated rival, has given it a legendary status within this specific streaming subculture.
This specific prediction market matters because it represents the formalization of a cultural phenomenon within live streaming. The Forsen versus xQc record chase is one of the most enduring and well-documented viewer rivalries on the internet. A financial market based on its outcome acknowledges the event's significance beyond mere entertainment, treating it as a specifiable occurrence with real-world value. For the streaming community, the outcome validates years of investment, memes, and shared history. A 'Yes' resolution would be a watershed moment for Forsen's community, potentially ending a multi-year narrative arc. A 'No' resolution would cement xQc's record as an untouchable relic of a specific era in streaming. Economically, successful record attempts generate massive viewership spikes, increasing ad revenue, subscriptions, and donations for the streamer. The market also reflects a broader trend of prediction platforms expanding beyond traditional sports and politics to cover internet culture, recognizing these events have predictable outcomes and engaged audiences willing to stake capital on them.
As of early 2024, xQc's record of 14:27.035 remains unbroken by Forsen. Forsen continues to attempt the record intermittently during his live streams, but not with the same daily intensity as in 2021. His attempts still draw tens of thousands of viewers. The community widely acknowledges that beating the record requires an exceptional combination of skillful play and favorable luck with the randomly generated world seed. The extended deadline until 2026 suggests market creators anticipate the challenge could persist for some time. Both streamers remain active on Twitch, though their content has evolved, making any dedicated return to Minecraft speedrunning a notable event for their audiences.
The run must be on Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed (not pre-selected), and start from a new world. The goal is to defeat the Ender Dragon, and the timer is the game's internal In-Game Time (IGT). The entire attempt must be broadcast live on Forsen's stream.
No. As of early 2024, Forsen has not officially completed a verified run with an In-Game Time faster than 14:27.035. He has come within a few seconds on multiple occasions, but xQc's record still stands.
Version 1.16.1 was the current game version during the peak of the Forsen-xQc rivalry in 2020-2021. Locking the category to this version preserves the original competition's conditions and prevents changes in newer game updates from altering the fundamental challenge.
It would not count for this market. The market description explicitly requires the speedrun to be completed "during a live stream." Only a live, broadcasted attempt is considered valid for resolution.
While the market resolver will make the final call, the community standard is set by speedrun.com. A run matching the category rules (any% random seed glitchless for 1.16.1) that is verified by that site's moderators would be considered strong evidence of legitimacy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
2 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 4% |
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