Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Total Volume

$1.09K

Events

Markets

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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Vol

$1.09K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.09K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.09K

100%

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19 markets tracked

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Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

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Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?	Kalshi	99%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?	Kalshi	99%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?	Kalshi	99%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?	Kalshi	98%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?	Kalshi	94%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,500 MW?	Kalshi	91%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 79,000 MW?	Kalshi	89%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 79,500 MW?	Kalshi	81%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 80,000 MW?	Kalshi	71%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 80,500 MW?	Kalshi	56%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 81,000 MW?	Kalshi	24%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 81,500 MW?	Kalshi	19%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 82,000 MW?	Kalshi	16%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 82,500 MW?	Kalshi	5%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 84,000 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 83,500 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 83,000 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 85,000 MW?	Kalshi	2%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 84,500 MW?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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99%

Top Probability

$1.09K

Volume

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About This Event

October 13, 2026 If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 13, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 13, 2026

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 13, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 

85,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 85,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 84,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 84,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 83,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 83,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 82,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 82,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 81,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 81,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 80,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 80,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 79,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 79,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $432
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Volume$1.09K

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 77,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 76,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 76,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 77,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 is above 78,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

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Oct 21, 2026, 4:56 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/YLlj2l" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026"></iframe>

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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

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Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Markets (19)

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

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Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 13, 2026

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 13, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

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