Name: What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31? | PredictPedia

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4 markets tracked

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?	Poly	53%
Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?	Poly	51%
Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?	Poly	50%
Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?	Poly	13%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and January 31, any data point on the WatchCharts Rolex Submariner Market Index (https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex/submariner) shows a price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market may remain open until the datapoint for January 31 or any subsequent datapoint is released, or until one week after resolution, upon which time it will resolve immediately.



**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and January 31, any data point on the WatchCharts Rolex Submariner Market Index (https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex/submariner) shows a price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will reso"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43
* **Total Liquidity:** $296
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

14d 12h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

41¢

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What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31?

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Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31?

Markets (4)

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?

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Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will Rolex Submariner hit by January 31?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,850 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,800 or lower in December?

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