GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Goiás Senate Election: 1st Place

Name: Goiás Senate Election: 1st Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.99K

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Goiás Senate Election: 1st Place

Vol

$12.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	74%
Will Gustavo Gayer win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	17%
Will Guilherme Darques win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	3%
Will Cintia Dias win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Dr. Zacharias Calil win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Iure Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Isaura Lemos win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Ernesto Roller win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Vanderlan Cardoso win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Gustavo Mendanha win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Oséias Varão win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$12.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that oc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Goiás Senate Election: 1st Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that oc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Goiás is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or mo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $88.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Cintia Dias win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dr. Zacharias Calil win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ernesto Roller win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $197
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Guilherme Darques win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gustavo Gayer win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gustavo Mendanha win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $165
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Isaura Lemos win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Iure Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $149
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Oséias Varão win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Vanderlan Cardoso win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $206
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics