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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

Name: US Trade Deficit in 2026?
End: 2027-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

Vol

$20.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?	Poly	56%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?	Poly	22%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?	Poly	14%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?	Poly	10%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?	Poly	9%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?	Poly	6%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?	Poly	6%
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$20.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Impor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Trade Deficit in 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 28, 2027 (228 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.

Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases

The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Impor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in Fe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $16.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $372
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $945
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $875
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $560
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $338
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $393
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $378
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy