This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Name: Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$748.34K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Vol

$748.34K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $748.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $748.34K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Poly	20%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	Poly	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$748.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is deta"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $221.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $54.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $109.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $111.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics