$7.62K
1
11
$7.62K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is pub
Prediction markets are currently pricing in significant uncertainty regarding Apple's (AAPL) closing price for the week ending January 16. The leading contract on Polymarket, which asks if AAPL will close between $255 and $260, is trading at 44%. This probability suggests the market sees this specific range as a plausible outcome, but one that is slightly less likely than not. With 11 different price bracket markets available and a total trading volume of only $8,000, the thin liquidity indicates a lack of strong consensus, making the current odds particularly sensitive to new information.
The primary factor is Apple's recent stock performance and technical positioning. In the week leading up to this market's resolution, AAPL's price action would be the immediate driver. A second major factor is the market's anticipation of any pre-earnings sentiment or news flow, as Apple's quarterly earnings report for the holiday period (Q1 FY2026) is typically released in late January. Traders may be positioning for potential volatility ahead of that key event. Finally, broader market conditions, especially in the technology sector and any macroeconomic data releases during that week, heavily influence a mega-cap stock like Apple and contribute to the wide range of potential outcomes reflected in the multiple trading brackets.
The odds will be most directly changed by Apple's intraday stock price movement on Friday, January 16. Any significant news, such as unexpected analyst rating changes, supply chain reports, or regulatory developments, could cause a sharp repricing in the final hours of trading. Furthermore, because liquidity is thin across these markets, a relatively small amount of capital could shift the probabilities meaningfully between the adjacent price brackets. The resolution will ultimately hinge on the official closing price, with the market's structure favoring the higher bracket in the event of a value falling exactly on a bracket boundary.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the closing price of Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock for the trading week ending January 12. Participants are wagering on which specific price bracket the stock will finish within on the final trading session of that week, typically a Friday. The market resolves based on the official closing price published by Nasdaq, with specific rules for tie-breaking scenarios and shortened trading sessions. Apple's stock price is one of the most closely watched financial metrics globally, serving as a bellwether for both the technology sector and the broader market. Recent interest in this specific timeframe stems from its position following major holiday sales periods and preceding Apple's quarterly earnings report for Q1 2024, which typically occurs in late January. Analysts and investors scrutinize weekly price movements for signals about consumer electronics demand, supply chain health, and the performance of Apple's services segment. The outcome of this market provides a quantified consensus view on near-term market sentiment toward one of the world's most valuable public companies.
Apple's stock has experienced significant volatility around weekly closes throughout its history as a public company. A key historical precedent was the week ending January 27, 2023, when Apple closed at approximately $145.93 after reporting its first quarterly revenue decline since 2019. This highlighted how weekly price action often reacts to fundamental shifts. The stock's performance is also historically sensitive to product cycles. For instance, in the week following the iPhone 14 launch in September 2022, the stock closed down over 4% due to initial reports of production challenges. Furthermore, broader market events create context. During the week ending March 20, 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple closed near $229, reflecting a massive market sell-off before unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus fueled a historic rally. Understanding these past reactions to earnings, product news, and macro shocks is essential for forecasting price behavior in January 2024. The stock has demonstrated both resilience as a 'flight to quality' asset during downturns and sensitivity to interest rate changes affecting its high valuation multiples.
The weekly closing price of Apple stock matters far beyond the trading desks. As a component of all major U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, its performance directly impacts millions of retirement accounts, pension funds, and index-tracking ETFs. A significant move in Apple can sway the direction of the entire market. For the global economy, Apple's market capitalization, which has exceeded $3 trillion, represents a massive store of wealth and a barometer for consumer spending on high-end electronics and services. Its supply chain, spanning hundreds of companies across dozens of countries, means that investor confidence in Apple translates into business forecasts and employment decisions worldwide. A sustained downturn could signal weakening global demand for technology, while strength could indicate robust consumer resilience. The outcome of this specific weekly close provides a timely data point on whether Wall Street maintains faith in the company's ability to navigate economic uncertainty, regulatory challenges, and intense competition.
As of mid-December 2023, Apple's stock is trading near all-time highs, buoyed by broader market optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and sustained demand for premium devices. Recent developments include the full launch of the iPhone 15 line and growing analyst commentary on the expected launch of the Vision Pro spatial computing headset in early 2024. However, concerns persist regarding smartphone market saturation and Apple's exposure to regulatory scrutiny in both the United States and European Union. The trading week ending January 12, 2024, will occur after the critical holiday shopping season but before the company's earnings release, placing it in an informational 'quiet period' where traders will parse data from supply chain reports and preliminary holiday sales figures from third-party analysts.
The regular trading session for Apple (AAPL) on the Nasdaq exchange closes at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The official closing price used for market resolution is determined at this time through the closing auction process.
The official closing price is published by the Nasdaq exchange on its website and through market data distributors. Financial news outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters report this price, but the definitive source for market resolution is Nasdaq's official record.
If a trading halt is in effect at the scheduled market close, the resolution will typically be delayed until the closing price is established on the next trading day where a full session occurs, unless the market's specific rules state otherwise for that event.
Yes, all historical prices are adjusted for stock splits to ensure continuity. A prediction market based on a nominal price bracket would use the split-adjusted closing price. Apple's last stock split was a 4-for-1 split in August 2020.
On the ex-dividend date, the stock price typically opens lower by approximately the amount of the dividend, as that value is paid out to shareholders. This mechanical adjustment is reflected in the daily and weekly closing prices.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 23% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/YSvhEJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Apple (AAPL) closes week of Jan 12 at ___?"></iframe>