Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Name: Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
End: 2027-01-02T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$183.91K

Events

Markets

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Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Vol

$183.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $183.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $183.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	97%
Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	25%
Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	23%
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	22%
Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	21%
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Playboi Carti have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Kanye West have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$183.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 2, 2027 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song releas"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $133.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Billie Eilish have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $42.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $845
  DATA: [Yes: 11.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $585
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Playboi Carti have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $945
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Kanye West have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $866
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.9% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture