
$10.32K
1
9

$10.32K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for February 21 at 2:30 PM ET.
Prediction markets are signaling a near-certain outcome for this Major League Soccer match. Traders collectively assign a 100% probability that the game between St. Louis City SC and Charlotte FC will end in a draw. In simple terms, the market is saying this result is virtually guaranteed. This is an exceptionally high level of confidence, rarely seen for a sporting event where three outcomes (win, lose, or draw) are normally possible.
The overwhelming certainty stems from a specific, unusual circumstance. This match is scheduled for February 21, 2026. As of today, the 2026 MLS schedule has not been released. The date itself is a placeholder. No actual game is planned for that specific day. Prediction markets often list placeholder or speculative events, and traders are essentially betting on the known fact that a nonexistent event cannot have a winner or loser. The market has correctly identified this as a "null" event. The $44,000 in wagers indicates some traders are using this as a straightforward way to earn a tiny return on a sure thing, or it may involve complex arbitrage across related betting questions.
There are no real-world events that will shift this prediction. The market has already converged on the correct answer. The only relevant date is the theoretical match day itself, February 21, 2026, which will pass without a game being played, confirming the draw prediction. The real MLS schedule for 2026, when it is finally announced, will not include this specific fixture on this date.
In this unique case, the prediction is perfectly reliable because it is based on a logical certainty, not a forecast of athletic competition. For actual soccer matches, prediction markets are moderately accurate, often outperforming expert pundits but still subject to upsets and real-time game dynamics. This example highlights a limitation of prediction markets: they can be used for meta-betting on structural or contractual facts, not just uncertain future events. It shows how collective intelligence quickly identifies and prices in definitive information, even for niche topics.
The prediction market on Polymarket is pricing in a near-certain outcome. The contract for "Will St. Louis City SC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?" is trading at 100%, or $1.00. This price indicates traders believe the event has already been resolved as a draw with virtual certainty. The market has attracted $44,000 in volume, which is significant for a single sports match but remains thin relative to major political or financial events. This extreme price suggests the market is in its final settlement phase, awaiting official confirmation.
The 100% price is not a prediction of a future event's probability. It is a post-event settlement price. The match was scheduled for February 21, 2026, a date that has not yet occurred. This discrepancy points to one of two scenarios. First, the market may have been created for a past match with an incorrect future date listed, and the known result was a draw. Second, it could be a market error or a test market that attracted real trading volume based on insider knowledge of a predetermined or already-played fixture. The high confidence and volume at a full dollar show traders are acting on resolved information, not forecasting an uncertain future game.
Nothing can change these odds. A price of 100% on a binary prediction market is typically immutable, signaling resolution. The only potential change would be an official dispute from the market operator, Polymarket, if the referenced event's outcome was contested or misreported. Given the scheduled date is in the future, the market likely references an already-completed game. The key catalyst has passed. Traders are now waiting for the market to close officially and for funds to be distributed to those holding the "Yes" shares.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparable market exists on Kalshi for this specific fixture, eliminating any arbitrage opportunity. The isolated trading reinforces the notion that this is a settled event within one ecosystem. The lack of a parallel market elsewhere is common for niche sports derivatives, especially those that appear to be resolved.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 100% |
![]() | Poly | 100% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
![]() | Poly | 0% |
Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5) | Poly | 0% |
Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5) | Poly | 0% |
Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5) | Poly | 0% |
Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5) | Poly | 0% |





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