This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Name: Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.20M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Vol

$12.20M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.20M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.20M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$12.20M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.20M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.19M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $12.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics