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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-32 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The CA-32 House Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win California's 32nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. The district, which includes parts of Los Angeles County, is a reliably Democratic seat that has been represented by Democrats for decades. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets and official election results on November 4, 2026. This specific race attracts attention because it represents a test of Democratic strength in a historically blue district during a midterm cycle where control of the House could be at stake. The 2026 election will be the first House race in this district following the 2024 presidential election, potentially serving as an early indicator of political trends in Southern California. Political analysts monitor districts like CA-32 for signs of shifting demographics or voter sentiment that could affect longer-term electoral maps. The outcome could influence national fundraising strategies and party resource allocation for future cycles. While the district has consistently elected Democrats, the margin of victory and candidate quality often provide insights into broader political currents affecting urban and suburban constituencies.
California's 32nd congressional district has existed in its current form since the 2022 elections, following redistricting based on the 2020 census. The district incorporates areas previously represented by multiple members, including parts of former districts represented by Democrats Tony Cárdenas and Brad Sherman. From 2003 to 2013, much of this area was part of California's 27th district, represented by Democrat Howard Berman. The district's lineage shows consistent Democratic representation since at least 1997, when Brad Sherman first won election to what was then California's 24th district. In the 2022 election under the new boundaries, Sherman received 67.2% of the vote against Republican candidate John M. Smith. The 2024 election saw similar results, with Sherman securing 67.8% against the same Republican opponent. The district's voting patterns reflect its demographic composition, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by approximately 2.5 to 1 according to 2024 registration data from the California Secretary of State. Historically, the district has not elected a Republican since its creation in the current configuration, and no Republican has represented any of its predecessor districts since the early 1990s. This continuity makes CA-32 one of the most reliably Democratic districts in California, though primary challenges within the Democratic Party have occasionally been competitive.
The CA-32 House election matters because it represents a Democratic stronghold in the nation's most populous state. A change in party control would signal a major political realignment with implications for House leadership, committee assignments, and legislative priorities. The district's representative influences federal policy on issues important to the Los Angeles region, including transportation funding, housing policy, and environmental regulations. For national political strategists, the margin of victory in CA-32 provides data about Democratic performance in diverse urban-suburban districts. A significantly reduced Democratic margin could indicate vulnerability in similar districts nationwide, potentially affecting resource allocation for future elections. The election outcome also matters for local representation, as the district's member of Congress advocates for federal projects and funding affecting the San Fernando Valley and surrounding communities. Businesses, nonprofit organizations, and local governments monitor this race because the winner will influence federal appropriations and regulatory decisions affecting the regional economy.
As of early 2025, Representative Brad Sherman has not officially announced whether he will seek re-election in 2026. Sherman will be 71 years old during the 2026 election cycle. No major candidates from either party have declared their intention to run for the seat. The California Democratic Party continues to list Sherman as the incumbent representative for CA-32 on its official website. The National Republican Congressional Committee's target list for 2026 has not been released, but CA-32 was not among their targeted districts in the 2024 cycle. Local Democratic clubs in the San Fernando Valley are planning their 2026 endorsement processes, which typically begin in late 2025.
CA-32 includes parts of the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles County, specifically the cities of San Fernando and portions of Los Angeles including Northridge, Panorama City, Van Nuys, and North Hills. The district boundaries were established by California's Citizens Redistricting Commission in 2021.
No Republican has won election in California's 32nd congressional district since it was created in its current form for the 2022 elections. The district's predecessor districts have also elected Democrats consistently since the 1990s.
The candidate filing deadline for the June 2026 primary election will likely be in March 2026, based on California's election calendar. Exact dates will be set by the California Secretary of State and Los Angeles County Registrar approximately one year before the election.
In the 2024 election cycle, Brad Sherman raised approximately $1.2 million for his re-election campaign according to Federal Election Commission records. His Republican opponent John M. Smith raised about $45,000. Sherman outspent his opponent by a ratio of nearly 20 to 1.
As of 2025, Brad Sherman serves on the House Financial Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He is the ranking member of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets. Committee assignments for the 2026 term will be determined after the election.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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