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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-02 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Republican Party win the WA-02 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The WA-02 House Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win Washington's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. This market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner after all 2026 House elections are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026. Washington's 2nd district covers parts of northwest Washington state, including all of San Juan, Skagit, and Whatcom counties, plus a portion of Snohomish County. The district includes the cities of Bellingham, Mount Vernon, and Everett. The seat is currently held by Democrat Rick Larsen, who has represented the district since 2001. The 2026 election will be particularly significant as it occurs during a midterm cycle where control of the House could shift, and it follows redistricting changes implemented after the 2020 census. Political observers monitor this district because it has shown competitive tendencies in certain election cycles despite its current Democratic lean. The district's mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas, along with its coastal economy and environmental concerns, creates a distinctive political environment. Interest in this prediction market comes from political analysts, investors tracking political outcomes, and observers of Pacific Northwest politics who want to gauge party strength in a bellwether district.
Washington's 2nd congressional district has existed since the 1950s, with boundaries that have shifted multiple times during redistricting cycles. From 1965 to 1993, the district was represented by Republican Lloyd Meeds, followed by Democrat Al Swift from 1979 to 1995. Republican Jack Metcalf held the seat from 1995 to 2001, winning three terms before retiring. The district's modern political character began to take shape when Democrat Rick Larsen first won election in 2000, defeating Republican John Koster by just 2,961 votes in that year's open race. Larsen's initial victory came during a favorable Democratic cycle, and he has maintained the seat through subsequent elections. The district's political behavior has evolved alongside demographic changes in the Puget Sound region north of Seattle. Whatcom County, home to Western Washington University in Bellingham, has become increasingly Democratic-leaning, while Skagit and Snohomish counties contain more politically mixed areas. The 2010 redistricting process slightly altered the district's boundaries but maintained its basic northwest Washington configuration. In the 2022 redistricting, the Washington State Redistricting Commission made minor adjustments that did not substantially change the district's partisan composition. The district voted for Joe Biden by 17 points in the 2020 presidential election, reflecting its current Democratic tilt at the federal level.
The outcome of the WA-02 House election will help determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. With the House frequently operating with narrow majorities, each competitive seat like WA-02 could prove decisive for legislative outcomes on issues ranging from federal spending to climate policy. The district's representative will influence federal decisions affecting the Salish Sea ecosystem, maritime trade through Puget Sound, and the region's agricultural economy. For Washington state, the election tests whether Democrats can maintain their dominance in western Washington congressional districts or whether Republicans can make inroads in areas outside their eastern Washington base. The campaign will highlight policy debates about environmental regulation, naval base operations at Naval Station Everett, border security with Canada, and support for the district's fishing and farming industries. The election's outcome will signal whether demographic trends favoring Democrats in educated suburban and university communities continue or whether economic concerns shift the district's political alignment.
As of early 2025, Representative Rick Larsen has not officially announced whether he will seek reelection in 2026. Most political observers expect him to run for a fourteenth term, given his continued activity in the district and fundraising. The Washington State Republican Party has begun preliminary discussions about potential challengers, with 2024 nominee Dan Matthews considering another run. The district's boundaries remain unchanged from the 2024 election following the 2022 redistricting cycle. Fundraising reports for the 2026 cycle will begin to show candidate strength in mid-2025. National party committees are assessing whether to target WA-02 based on early polling and candidate recruitment.
Washington's 2nd district includes all of San Juan, Skagit, and Whatcom counties, plus the northwestern portion of Snohomish County. Major cities include Bellingham in Whatcom County, Mount Vernon in Skagit County, and part of Everett in Snohomish County.
No. Republican Jack Metcalf represented the district from 1995 to 2001. Before that, Democrat Al Swift held the seat from 1979 to 1995, and Republican Lloyd Meeds represented the district from 1965 to 1979. The district has changed parties multiple times in its history.
The candidate filing deadline will likely be in May 2026, based on Washington's election calendar. The state uses a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election.
Washington uses a nonpartisan blanket primary where all candidates appear on the same ballot. Voters select one candidate regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same party.
Larsen serves on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the House Armed Services Committee. He is the ranking member on the Aviation Subcommittee and also serves on the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee.
Rick Larsen raised approximately $1.2 million for his 2024 campaign, while Dan Matthews raised about $450,000. Total spending including outside groups was under $2 million, making it a relatively low-cost race compared to competitive districts elsewhere.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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