Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

Name: Israel Election: Dems # of seats?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

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$5.85K

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Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

Vol

$5.85K

Events

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markets · $5.85K

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.85K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Dems win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Dems win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	47%
Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	23%
Will Dems win 12-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	21%
Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	11%
Will Dems win 14 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$5.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: Dems # of seats?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or mor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dems win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $794
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dems win 12-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $534
  DATA: [Yes: 20.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dems win 14 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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