Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026? | PredictPedia

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14 markets tracked

Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will Iceland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will Netherlands officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will Spain officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will Slovenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Kazakhstan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will North Macedonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Ireland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?	Kalshi	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Eurovision 2026

If X has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify as participation, the country/broadcaster must be confirmed by the EBU or national broadcaster to represent a country AND must perform their entry as part of the competition, either in a Semi-Final or Grand Final. The performance must be a numbered competition entry eligible for voting. Opening acts, interval acts, or other non-competitive performances do not 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Slovenia has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify as participation, the country/broadcaster must be confirmed by the EBU or national broadcaster to represent a country AND must perform their entry as part "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Slovenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Netherlands officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will North Macedonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kazakhstan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Iceland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ireland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Spain officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

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Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

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Events (1)

Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Markets (14)

Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

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Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

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