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$264.01K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland befo
Prediction markets currently assign a low 16% probability that the "Yes" share for the underlying "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" market will trade at or above a 30% price threshold by March 31, 2026. This 16% chance indicates the market views this specific milestone as highly unlikely. The underlying Greenland acquisition market itself trades around 10-12%, meaning the core event is seen as improbable. The derivative market essentially bets on a near-tripling of that core probability within the next 75 days.
The low probability is anchored by significant geopolitical and procedural realities. First, any acquisition would require the consent of the Greenlandic people and the Danish government, both of which have repeatedly and firmly rejected the notion since it was first floated during Trump's presidency. Second, the political window for such an unprecedented move is narrow. Even if Donald Trump wins the November 2024 election, he would not be inaugurated until January 2025, leaving only a short timeframe before the March 2026 deadline for market sentiment to shift dramatically. Third, such a major geopolitical initiative would face immense legislative and international hurdles, making a rapid surge in market confidence unlikely.
The primary catalyst for a shift would be a concrete, official policy statement from Donald Trump reviving the proposal with specific intent, especially if made after a potential election victory. A surprise diplomatic overture or negotiation leak could cause a short-term speculative spike. However, the odds are more likely to change downward. Any reaffirmation of opposition from Greenland or Denmark, or a clear statement from Trump abandoning the idea, would push the probability toward zero. The market's 75-day timeline is likely too short for the fundamental situation to change, barring an extraordinary and immediate geopolitical shift.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic tracks the probability that former President Donald Trump will successfully acquire Greenland for the United States before 2027, as measured by a derivative financial instrument. Specifically, it resolves to 'Yes' if the 'Yes' option on the underlying Polymarket contract 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?' trades at or above the listed threshold price for any continuous four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026. This market is a meta-prediction on the price movement of another prediction market, reflecting betting sentiment rather than a direct assessment of geopolitical events. The topic gained significant attention in August 2019 when then-President Trump publicly confirmed his interest in purchasing the autonomous Danish territory, citing its strategic location and resource potential. While the proposal was swiftly and firmly rejected by Danish leadership, the concept has remained a point of discussion in political and financial circles, particularly among Trump's supporters and critics. Prediction markets like this one allow participants to speculate on low-probability, high-impact events by trading shares based on their perceived likelihood, creating a financialized gauge of public and insider sentiment on unconventional political possibilities.
The United States' interest in Greenland is not a novel concept. The most significant historical precedent is the 1917 purchase of the Danish West Indies, which became the U.S. Virgin Islands, for $25 million in gold. This established a history of the U.S. acquiring territory from Denmark. During World War II, after the Nazi occupation of Denmark in 1940, the U.S. established protective custody over Greenland, leading to the construction of critical defense installations like Thule Air Base. This base, established by agreement in 1951, remains the U.S. Air Force's northernmost base and a key component of NORAD and missile defense systems. The 2019 proposal by President Trump, therefore, fits into a longer pattern of American strategic and realpolitik interest in the island, though it was the first time a sitting president had openly discussed an outright purchase in the modern era. Historically, such territorial acquisitions have been driven by military strategy and resource access, themes Trump echoed in his comments.
The persistence of this topic in prediction markets speaks to broader themes in contemporary politics and finance. It tests the boundaries of what is considered a plausible political event, reflecting a climate where unconventional policy ideas can gain traction. Financially, it represents the growth of prediction markets as tools for hedging and speculating on geopolitical risk, creating a quantifiable measure of sentiment on long-tail events. Politically, the discussion impacts U.S.-Denmark relations, a traditionally strong alliance within NATO. It also directly affects the people of Greenland, whose right to self-determination and economic future becomes a subject of international speculation. For investors and observers, the market price serves as a constantly updating poll on the perceived likelihood of a radical shift in global borders and sovereignty, with implications for defense contracting, resource extraction industries, and international law.
As of late 2024, the underlying proposition of a U.S. acquisition of Greenland remains firmly rejected by both the Danish and Greenlandic governments. No formal diplomatic initiatives have been renewed since the 2019 rebuff. The prediction market itself exists as a financial instrument, with its price fluctuating based on trader sentiment, often influenced by news related to Donald Trump's political fortunes. The market's resolution is purely technical, dependent on the trading activity of the derivative contract on the Polymarket platform by the March 2026 deadline, independent of real-world diplomatic progress.
Trump cited Greenland's strategic geographic location in the Arctic, its potential for valuable mineral and rare earth element deposits, and the expansion of U.S. economic and military influence as reasons for his interest. He framed it as a large real estate deal beneficial to U.S. national security.
Legally, any change to Greenland's status would require a complex multilateral agreement involving the Danish government (which holds sovereignty over foreign and defense policy), the autonomous Government of Greenland, and likely a referendum of the Greenlandic people, as stipulated in its Self-Government Act of 2009. A simple bilateral purchase is not a recognized mechanism under current international and Danish law.
Polymarket markets resolve based on verifiable real-world outcomes or, in this case, the price activity of another contract on its platform. This specific market resolves based on whether the 'Yes' share of the underlying Greenland contract trades at or above a specific price for a continuous four-hour period, using the platform's own minute-level price data as the source.
Denmark's response, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, was an immediate and categorical rejection. Frederiksen called the idea 'absurd' and stated Greenland was not for sale, leading Trump to postpone a planned state visit to Denmark in a diplomatic spat.
This date is the final deadline for the resolution condition to be met. The market checks if the specified price threshold on the underlying contract is sustained for a four-hour period at any point up until 11:59 PM ET on that date. After that, if the condition has not been met, the market resolves to 'No'.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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