This prediction market asks whether the United States will begin the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before January 1, 2030. A nuclear-powered data center uses small modular reactors (SMRs) or microreactors to generate electricity for high-density computing operations, often required for artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and national security applications. The US Department of Defense (DoD) operates some of the world's largest data centers, handling everything from logistics to intelligence analysis, and these facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity. Pairing them with nuclear power offers a carbon-free, high-reliability energy source that can operate independently of the civilian grid, which is vulnerable to cyberattacks and physical disruption. The concept gained traction in 2023 and 2024 as the US military sought to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and as the commercial sector struggled to find enough clean energy for AI data centers. In 2023, the DoD's Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) issued a request for information (RFI) for a 'mobile nuclear reactor' that could be deployed at remote bases. Separately, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has been funding SMR development through its Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), with projects like NuScale Power's VOYGR reactor and X-energy's Xe-100. The military has a history of using nuclear power: the US Navy has operated nuclear reactors on submarines and aircraft carriers for over 60 years, and the Army operated a small nuclear power plant at Fort Greely, Alaska, from 1962 to 1972. However, no US military base currently has a nuclear reactor for data center operations. Interest in this topic is driven by the intersection of three trends: the explosive growth in data center energy demand, the military's need for resilient and secure power, and the push for net-zero emissions by 2050. Data centers consumed about 1-2% of global electricity in 2023, but that share could rise to 8% by 2030 due to AI workloads. The military's data centers are especially energy-intensive: the Pentagon's data center at Fort Meade, Maryland, uses enough electricity to power 20,000 homes. Nuclear power offers a solution that is both dense (a single SMR can produce 50-300 megawatts) and continuous (unlike solar or wind). The question is whether the regulatory, safety, and cost hurdles can be overcome within the next six years. The outcome of this market has implications for the future of military energy security, the commercial nuclear industry, and climate policy. A 'yes' resolution would signal that the US government is willing to pursue nuclear power for non-weapon, non-propulsion applications on military land, potentially opening the door for broader deployment. A 'no' resolution would indicate that barriers—such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) licensing process, the cost of SMRs, or community opposition—remain too high. The market's early close condition means it will resolve as soon as the event occurs, so participants are betting on both the probability and the timing.

Historical Context

The US military's relationship with nuclear power dates to the 1950s. The Army's 'Army Nuclear Power Program' operated eight small reactors between 1954 and 1977, including one at Fort Greely, Alaska (the SM-1A, which ran from 1962 to 1972). These reactors were used to provide heat and electricity for remote bases, but they were eventually shut down due to high costs and safety concerns. The Navy's nuclear program, by contrast, has been a continuous success: the USS Nautilus (launched 1954) proved the viability of naval nuclear propulsion, and today the Navy operates over 80 nuclear reactors on submarines and aircraft carriers. This experience gives the US military institutional knowledge of nuclear operations, but all of that knowledge is in the Navy, not the Army or Air Force. The modern push for nuclear-powered data centers began around 2020. In 2021, the DoD established the 'Project Pele' program to develop a mobile nuclear microreactor that could be trucked to a base and connected within 72 hours. The project is led by the Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) and has a budget of $300 million. A prototype is being built by BWX Technologies, a company that makes nuclear components for Navy ships. Separately, the Air Force's 'Energy Flight' program has been studying microreactors for data centers since 2022, focusing on bases like Joint Base San Antonio and Hill Air Force Base. In the commercial sector, the idea of pairing nuclear power with data centers gained attention in 2023 when Microsoft signed a power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy to buy nuclear power from the Three Mile Island plant (which is being restarted). That same year, Google and Amazon announced investments in SMR companies. However, no commercial nuclear-powered data center has been built in the US due to regulatory hurdles and high costs. The NRC's licensing process for a new reactor can take 5-10 years and cost over $1 billion. In 2024, the NRC proposed a new rule for 'advanced reactors' that could shorten the timeline to 3-4 years, but the rule has not been finalized.