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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have wi
Prediction markets currently assign a 66% probability to a Republican victory in the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. This price, trading at 66 cents on Polymarket, indicates the market views the GOP as a clear favorite, though not an overwhelming one. A 66% chance suggests the outcome is seen as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty remaining given the election is nearly 300 days away. The thin trading volume, approximately $1,000 across related markets, means this initial price is more indicative of early sentiment than a deeply liquid consensus.
Two primary factors are shaping the early Republican favoritism. First, the state's current political landscape provides a strong tailwind. Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu has maintained high approval ratings, and the GOP holds a trifecta controlling the governorship and both state legislative chambers. This demonstrates a recent and durable Republican advantage in statewide elections. Second, the national political environment for the 2026 midterms, while distant, may pose challenges for the Democratic Party. Historical patterns often see the sitting president's party struggle in midterm elections, which the market may be pricing in as a mild headwind for the Democratic nominee.
The current odds are highly susceptible to change as the election cycle develops. The most significant catalyst will be candidate selection. The eventual retirement of popular Governor Sununu will create an open seat, and the strength of the nominated Republican successor will be critical. A divisive GOP primary or a weak nominee could rapidly shift the odds. Conversely, Democrats could improve their position by recruiting a high-profile candidate with broad appeal, such as a well-known executive or member of Congress. Key dates to watch will be the candidate filing deadlines and the party primaries in September 2026, which will finalize the matchup and allow for more precise polling.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. New Hampshire's governor is elected to a two-year term, making the 2026 contest the next regularly scheduled election for the state's highest office. The election will determine who succeeds or continues the administration of the incumbent governor, with significant implications for state policy on issues ranging from education funding and business taxes to energy policy and healthcare. The race is expected to attract national attention as New Hampshire remains a politically competitive state with a history of close elections and independent-minded voters. Interest in this market stems from its role as a barometer for New England politics and as a potential indicator of broader national political trends ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle. The outcome will shape the direction of state government for the 2027-2028 term, influencing budgetary priorities, judicial appointments, and the implementation of laws passed by the Republican-controlled legislature.
New Hampshire's gubernatorial elections have a distinct pattern due to the state's unique two-year term for governor, the shortest in the nation. This frequent electoral cycle creates a near-constant campaign environment. Historically, the governorship has alternated between parties, though Republicans have held the office more frequently. From 1997 to 2004, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen served three terms, followed by one term for Republican Craig Benson. Democrat John Lynch then won an unprecedented four consecutive terms from 2005 to 2013. Since 2017, Republican Chris Sununu has matched that feat, winning four terms. This recent era of stability followed by potential change in 2026 due to term limits mirrors the transition after Governor Lynch's tenure. The 2024 election, where Sununu did not run for a fifth term, resulted in a Republican victory, continuing the party's hold on the office. The 2026 election will be the first open-seat race since 2016, increasing its competitive nature. New Hampshire's status as a 'purple' state, with a strong independent voting bloc, means general elections are often decided by narrow margins, as seen in the 2022 race where Sununu won by approximately 15 percentage points, a relatively large margin for the state.
The outcome of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election will have direct and substantial consequences for the state's 1.4 million residents. The governor sets the agenda for the state budget, which exceeded $15 billion for the 2024-2025 biennium, influencing funding for public schools, infrastructure, social services, and state employee contracts. The winner will also have appointment powers, including to the state's courts, regulatory boards, and the University System of New Hampshire Board of Trustees. Furthermore, the governor plays a critical role in responding to economic challenges, managing the state's energy portfolio, and administering federal programs. Politically, the election is a key test of party strength in a bellwether New England state. A victory for either party could signal momentum heading into the 2028 presidential election, where New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary remains a coveted prize. The election also matters for businesses, as the governor's stance on taxation, regulation, and economic development incentives directly impacts the state's business climate and competitiveness within the region.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is undeclared and speculative. The 2024 election cycle has just concluded, and potential candidates from both parties are in the early stages of consideration. No major candidates have formally announced campaigns. Political operatives and donors are assessing the landscape following the 2024 results. The Republican Party is evaluating a field that may include former statewide candidates and current legislators, while Democrats are likely to consider candidates who ran in 2024 or members of the state's limited Democratic leadership. The political action committees and 'testing the waters' phases of campaigning are expected to begin in earnest throughout 2025.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Party primaries to select the Democratic and Republican nominees will be held earlier that year, typically in September, as per New Hampshire state law.
To run for governor of New Hampshire, a candidate must be at least 30 years old, have been a resident of the state for at least seven years preceding the election, and be a registered voter. Candidates must also collect a required number of signatures to qualify for the ballot.
The governor of New Hampshire serves a two-year term, the shortest gubernatorial term in the United States. There is a term limit of four consecutive terms, meaning a governor can serve a maximum of eight consecutive years.
Key issues consistently include state education funding and property taxes, the opioid crisis and healthcare, energy costs and infrastructure, business tax policy, and reproductive rights. The specific emphasis can shift with economic conditions and national political debates.
Yes, New Hampshire has had several Democratic governors. Most recently, Democrat John Lynch served four consecutive terms from 2005 to 2013. Prior to that, Jeanne Shaheen served three terms from 1997 to 2003 before becoming a U.S. Senator.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 66% |
 | Poly | 34% |
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