Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

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Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

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$0.00

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About This Event

May 31, 2026 If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In inst

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** May 31, 2026

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In inst

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: T"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Yz5B4f" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?"></iframe>

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Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

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Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)