Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Young People's Literature

Total Volume

$670.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

National Book Award for Young People's Literature

Vol

$670.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $670.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $670.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	50%
Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	48%
Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	48%
Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	46%
Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will Holloway win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will The Free Verse Society win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	44%
Will Shook win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	44%
Will When Tomorrow Burns win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	41%
Will The Moon Without Stars win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	41%
Will Tie win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$670.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 | Young People's Literature If X Y wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** National Book Award for Young People's Literature
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 | Young People's Literature

If X Y wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If 'When Tomorrow Burns' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $670
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will When Tomorrow Burns win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tie win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shook win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will The Moon Without Stars win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Holloway win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will The Free Verse Society win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Young People's Literature

Volume$670.00

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: Th

KALSHI

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Life on the Moon' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close an

KALSHI

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early

KALSHI

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHISports

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: Thi

KALSHI

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHISports

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'The Celestial Seas' wins the award for Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close

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41¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/YzeWwW" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="National Book Award for Young People's Literature"></iframe>

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Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

National Book Award for Young People's Literature

Markets (11)

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

National Book Award for Young People's Literature

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Fight of Our Lives: AIDS in America win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Life on the Moon win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Clothes to Make You Smile: Patrick Kelly Designs His Dreams win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will That Which Feeds Us: A Hawaiian Gothic win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will The Celestial Seas win Young People's Literature at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Discussion

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