Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
PM $12.5K · K 304.8K contracts
2
6
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
PM $12.5K · K 304.8K contracts
2
6
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Tie is priced at 6% on Polymarket and 7.9% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| TieSame question, fine print differs | 6% | 7.9% | 1.9 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.5K · K 304.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
after the 2026 midterms after the 2026 midterms For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting, i, uncontested governorships, those without a scheduled election in 2026, plus, ii, contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-12T20:51:18.681Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The provider event asks, "Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?" Its rules state that "the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting, i, uncontested governorships, those without a scheduled election in 2026, plus, ii, contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision" [1]. The three saved markets each measure the difference between Republican and Democratic governor counts after the 2026 midterms, in different ranges: from -50 to -1, from 1 to 50, and exactly 0 [1]. Each market lists an end date of 2027-04-01 15:00 UTC in the saved data, but the source excerpt says the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. That end date is a contract closing field, not evidence of when any election result will be known.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-12 20:51 UTC and retrieved at 23:22 UTC on the same day [1]. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. For the range from -50 to -1, the Yes price was 0.675; for the range from 1 to 50, it was 0.24; and for exactly 0, it was 0.095 [1]. These three Yes prices sum to 1.01 in this snapshot. That gap reflects quoting conditions at the observation time and does not, by itself, indicate an opportunity, since the prices are not executable and the markets cover different ranges.
All three saved markets are included, and the coverage record shows 3 of 3 markets with no partial sample [1]. The source still cautions that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume and listing order are also not measures of liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The saved evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no news, trader counts, or forecasting track record. It also does not establish how or when the contested governorship results will be determined beyond the rule text quoted above, since the referenced ELECTION contract's criteria are not included in this evidence. Readers comparing this event with other platforms should check that wording, ranges, and close times match before comparing prices, because the rule definitions here are specific to this provider's contract.
References
- Kalshi: Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?. Provider data observed 2026-10-12T20:51:18.681Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 12, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which party will hold more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections. The provider's rule counts a party's governorships in two groups. The first group is uncontested governorships, meaning those without a scheduled election in 2026. The second group is contested governorships won by that party's candidate, as determined under the resolution criteria of a separate ELECTION contract, including an accelerated provision [1]. The event is categorized under Elections and was listed as active in the saved provider record, which did not supply a listed end time [1]. The underlying elections are the November 2026 United States midterms. Wikipedia describes these as elections scheduled to be held, in large part, on November 3, 2026, during Republican president Donald Trump's second term. The article says 39 state and territorial gubernatorial elections will be contested in addition to other races [2]. That November date comes from a reference article describing the scheduled elections. It is not a separate announcement about this contract's resolution. The contract is therefore a comparison of party totals rather than a single race. Its outcome depends on which governorships are held after the elections, including seats not up for election in 2026 and seats decided through the separate ELECTION contract's criteria [1].
Historical Context
The 2022 United States midterm elections were held on November 8, 2022, during incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden's term. Thirty-nine state and territorial gubernatorial elections were contested, along with numerous state and local races [3]. The same reference article notes that these were the first elections affected by the 2022 redistricting that followed the 2020 census [3]. The sources supplied for this topic do not describe how the 2022 gubernatorial results affected party totals, so no comparison is drawn here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors after the 2026 midterms. Under the provider's rule, governorships are counted by party through the uncontested and contested categories described above [1]. The saved market list includes three contracts on this difference: a range from -50 to -1, a range from 1 to 50, and exactly 0 [1]. Because the event is about the difference between the two parties, a result that leaves the parties tied would fall under the exactly 0 contract, while a result favoring one party would fall under the range contracts [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Yes price for the -50 to -1 contract was 0.675, the Yes price for the 1 to 50 contract was 0.24, and the Yes price for the exactly 0 contract was 0.095 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They are not a forecast of which party will govern more states. The saved market list is complete for this event according to the provider record, but that does not mean the providers list every possible outcome in the real world [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract count?
It counts governorships held by each party after the 2026 midterms. Uncontested governorships without a scheduled 2026 election are included, along with contested governorships won by that party's candidate under the ELECTION contract's resolution criteria [1].
When are the underlying elections held?
Wikipedia states that the 2026 elections are scheduled to be held, in large part, on November 3, 2026, and that 39 state and territorial gubernatorial elections will be contested [2].
Does a contract date mean the result is already known?
No. The listed end date for the saved markets is April 1, 2027, but that is a contract date in the market record and not an announced event date [1]. The provider's record also did not supply a listed end time for the event [1].
Are the prices probabilities?
The saved prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 1.9 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
