Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? | PredictPedia

This event has ended. Showing historical data.

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Name: Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$243.94K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $243.94K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $243.94K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$243.94K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. Qualifying incidents must occur in the region sp

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Qualifying incidents must occur in the region sp

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., phys"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $243.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.8K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 27.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $243.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

1¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Z2szCe" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)