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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Name: U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.54K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Vol

$3.54K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$3.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be dire

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be dire

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela statu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics