Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which party will win white voters in the midterms?

Name: Which party will win white voters in the midterms?
End: 2026-11-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.46K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which party will win white voters in the midterms?

Vol

$22.46K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.46K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.46K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?	Poly	82%
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$22.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which party will win white voters in the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 6, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.

In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $88.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics