Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

Total Volume

$16.90K

Events

Markets

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I bond fixed rate in November 2026

Vol

$16.90K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.90K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.90K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?	Kalshi	98%
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?	Kalshi	90%
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.8%?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$16.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to Series I savings bonds when issued. It does not refer to the semiannual inflation rate or the composite interest rate. The reported fixed rate will be used without rounding. Subsequ

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** I bond fixed rate in November 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to Series I savings bonds when issued. It does not refer to the semiannual inflation rate or the composite interest rate. The reported fixed rate will be used without rounding. Subsequ

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 

1.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 9, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

Volume$16.90K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 0.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to

KALSHI

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to

KALSHI

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 1.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to

KALSHI

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 1.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to

KALSHI

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

If the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, as announced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is above 1.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The “fixed rate” refers only to the annual fixed-rate component assigned to

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I bond fixed rate in November 2026

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

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Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

Markets (6)

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

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Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 0.8%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.0%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.2%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.4%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

Will the annual fixed rate for Series I savings bonds for November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 be above 1.6%?

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