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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The UT-04 House Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win Utah's 4th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. This market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner after all 2026 House races are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026. Utah's 4th District is a competitive federal constituency covering parts of Salt Lake, Utah, Juab, and Sanpete counties, including the cities of West Jordan, South Jordan, and portions of Salt Lake City. The district has shifted between Republican and Democratic control multiple times since its creation in 2013, making it one of Utah's most politically volatile areas and a frequent target for national party resources. Interest in this market stems from its status as a bellwether for broader political trends in the Intermountain West and its potential impact on the balance of power in the House of Representatives. The 2026 election will occur during a presidential administration's second term, historically a challenging environment for the incumbent president's party in midterm elections. Analysts watch UT-04 because its demographic mix of suburban voters, college-educated professionals, and a growing minority population reflects national political realignments. The outcome could signal whether Utah is becoming more competitive for Democrats or if Republicans can maintain their traditional dominance in the state's federal elections.
Utah's 4th Congressional District was created following the 2010 census, when Utah gained a fourth House seat. The district first elected a representative in 2012. Republican Mia Love won that initial election with 50.9% of the vote, defeating Democrat Jim Matheson, who received 47.5%. Love served two terms before losing to Democrat Ben McAdams in the 2018 midterm election by 694 votes. That 2018 result was not officially certified until November 20, 2018, due to the narrow margin. McAdams' victory marked only the second time a Democrat had won a U.S. House seat in Utah since 1996. McAdams' tenure lasted one term. In the 2020 election, Republican Burgess Owens defeated McAdams by 4,585 votes (50.6% to 49.4%), flipping the seat back to Republican control. This pattern of alternating party control every two years from 2018 to 2022 demonstrates the district's competitive nature. The 2022 election saw less competition, with Owens defeating Democrat Darlene McDonald by a 60.2% to 36.5% margin, partly due to redistricting that made the district slightly more Republican. The district's boundaries were adjusted again in 2021 by Utah's Republican-controlled legislature, shifting its partisan lean from D+2 to R+13 according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index. Despite this Republican advantage, the district has consistently performed more competitively than the PVI suggests because of its substantial population of moderate suburban voters.
The outcome of the UT-04 House election has implications for national governance. If Democrats win the seat, they gain one vote toward a House majority, affecting legislative priorities on issues like healthcare, taxation, and environmental policy. A Republican hold maintains the status quo in a district that national Republicans consider part of their core territory. For Utah specifically, this election tests whether the state's Republican dominance is weakening in its most urbanized district. A Democratic victory would signal that the party's growing strength in Salt Lake County suburbs could eventually challenge Republicans in other Utah districts. The election also matters for representation of minority communities. UT-04 has the highest percentage of Hispanic residents (22.1%) of any Utah congressional district. Both major parties have nominated minority candidates here, including Black representatives Burgess Owens and Mia Love. The district's economic profile matters too. It contains both affluent suburban areas and working-class neighborhoods, with policy debates often focusing on technology sector growth, traditional energy industries, and federal land use. The election result will influence how these competing interests are balanced in Congress.
As of early 2025, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 UT-04 House election. Incumbent Representative Burgess Owens has not announced whether he will seek reelection. The Utah Democratic Party is reportedly recruiting potential candidates, with former Representative Ben McAdams frequently mentioned as a possibility. The district boundaries remain unchanged from the 2022 election, following Utah's 2021 redistricting. National political forecasters initially rate the seat as 'Likely Republican' for 2026, but most acknowledge this rating could change based on candidate recruitment and national political environment. Fundraising for the 2026 cycle has not yet begun in earnest, though both parties' congressional campaign committees have identified UT-04 as a district to watch. Local party organizations are conducting voter outreach and building volunteer networks in preparation for the election cycle.
The general election will be held on November 4, 2026. Primary elections to select party nominees will occur earlier in 2026, with Utah's primary typically scheduled for late June.
Republican Burgess Owens has represented UT-04 since January 2021. He was first elected in 2020 and reelected in 2022. Owens serves on the House Committees on Education and the Workforce, and Science, Space, and Technology.
The district switched parties in three consecutive elections: Republican Mia Love won in 2016, Democrat Ben McAdams won in 2018, Republican Burgess Owens won in 2020. Owens won more decisively in 2022 after redistricting made the district more Republican.
Major cities include West Jordan, South Jordan, Herriman, Bluffdale, and portions of Salt Lake City. The district also covers parts of Utah County, including Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain, plus rural areas in Juab and Sanpete counties.
Yes, despite its Republican lean in presidential elections, UT-04 has elected both Republicans and Democrats to Congress since 2012. The Cook Political Report classifies it as R+13 but notes its competitive history in congressional races.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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