$4.69K
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$4.69K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on January 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by January 26, 2026
Prediction markets currently assign a 93% probability that "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of at least 89. This price, trading at 93 cents on Polymarket, indicates an overwhelming consensus that the film will meet this high critical bar. With only 3 days until resolution, the market exhibits extremely high confidence, viewing a score below 89 as a significant outlier scenario. However, the total trading volume is relatively thin at approximately $5,000, suggesting this is a niche market without massive institutional money behind the current odds.
The primary driver is the formidable creative pedigree behind the film. "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" is the direct sequel to the critically acclaimed "28 Days Later" (87% Tomatometer) and "28 Weeks Later" (71% Tomatometer), with original director Danny Boyle and writer Alex Garland returning. This reunion of the core team responsible for revitalizing the zombie genre two decades ago creates immense anticipation for a return to form. Furthermore, early festival buzz and select critic social media reactions, though unofficial, have been exceptionally positive, reinforcing the narrative that the film is a worthy successor. The specific threshold of 89 appears chosen to match or exceed the original film's score, a target the market believes is achievable.
Given the market resolves in just 3 days, the odds are largely locked in, but a drastic shift is still possible. The official Tomatometer score will be compiled from reviews published on or before January 19, 2026. A last-minute wave of negative reviews from major publications like The New York Times or The Guardian could rapidly depress the score below the 89 threshold, which would cause the "No" shares to spike in value. The biggest risk is that the film, while good, is judged as not quite reaching the iconic status of the original, landing in the low-to-mid 80s instead. Any leak of the actual score before the resolution time would immediately and definitively settle the market.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparable contract exists on Kalshi, which focuses primarily on real-world events and politics rather than entertainment derivatives. The thin liquidity on Polymarket means the current 93% price could be more volatile if significant new money enters the market before resolution, but the short time frame makes a major move unlikely barring a surprise critical panning.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the critical reception of the upcoming horror film '28 Years Later: The Bone Temple,' specifically its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. Rotten Tomatoes is a prominent review aggregation website that assigns a percentage score based on published reviews from approved critics. A 'fresh' rating, indicated by a red tomato, is given to films with a score of 60% or higher, while a 'rotten' rating, shown as a green splat, is for scores below 60%. This market will resolve based on the 'All Critics' score at a specific date and time in January 2026, making it a speculative instrument on the film's quality as perceived by professional critics. The interest stems from the film's position as a sequel to the influential '28 Days Later' (2002) and '28 Weeks Later' (2007), which redefined the zombie genre with their fast-moving infected and socio-political commentary. The original film, directed by Danny Boyle, holds a certified fresh 87% on Rotten Tomatoes, setting a high benchmark for this new installment. The market allows participants to bet on whether the sequel can meet or exceed a specified critical threshold, reflecting broader industry and fan expectations for the revival of a beloved franchise after a nearly two-decade hiatus. The outcome is significant for gauging both the film's artistic success and its potential commercial performance, as Rotten Tomatoes scores increasingly influence audience viewing decisions.
The '28' franchise began with '28 Days Later,' directed by Danny Boyle from a script by Alex Garland and released in 2002. The film was a critical and commercial success, earning $84.6 million globally against a modest $8 million budget and achieving an 87% Tomatometer score. It revitalized the zombie genre by introducing fast-moving, rage-virus-infected creatures and focusing on psychological horror and societal collapse. Its sequel, '28 Weeks Later,' released in 2007 with Juan Carlos Fresnadillo directing and Boyle producing, received a lower but still fresh 71% Tomatometer score and grossed $65.8 million worldwide. Talks of a third film, often referred to as '28 Months Later,' persisted for over a decade but never materialized due to creative and rights issues. The critical reception of the first two films established a precedent where the franchise is held to a high standard for intelligent horror. The original film's score of 87% represents the high-water mark that any sequel would be measured against, while the 71% for '28 Weeks Later' shows a slight dip that subsequent installments would aim to recover from. The nearly 20-year gap between '28 Weeks Later' and this new film is one of the longest in modern horror sequel history, creating immense anticipation and scrutiny.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for '28 Years Later: The Bone Temple' matters significantly beyond mere critical opinion. For the film industry, a high score can validate the decision to revive a dormant franchise and signal strong word-of-mouth, directly influencing opening weekend box office performance and the film's longevity in the cultural conversation. A low score could damage the franchise's legacy and deter future installments, affecting the careers of the involved creatives and the financial calculations of Searchlight Pictures. For prediction market participants and industry observers, the score serves as a quantifiable metric of success in an otherwise subjective field, allowing for data-driven analysis of trends in genre filmmaking and franchise management. The outcome will also impact fan communities and the broader horror genre, potentially reaffirming or diminishing the cultural capital of one of the 21st century's most influential horror series.
As of late 2024, '28 Years Later: The Bone Temple' is in active development, with Danny Boyle and Alex Garland officially attached to direct and write, respectively. The project was officially announced in early 2024, with Cillian Murphy joining as an executive producer. The film is slated for a 2026 release, with Searchlight Pictures handling distribution. No casting announcements beyond Murphy's producing role have been made, and filming has not yet commenced. The market is currently speculative, based on the announced creative team and the legacy of the franchise, with no early reviews or test screenings to inform predictions.
The Tomatometer is a percentage score representing the proportion of positive professional critic reviews for a film or TV show on Rotten Tomatoes. A score of 60% or higher is considered 'fresh,' while below 60% is 'rotten.' It aggregates reviews from hundreds of approved critics.
The film is currently scheduled for release in 2026. An exact date has not been officially announced by distributor Searchlight Pictures, but production is underway with the core creative team from the original film attached.
As of the latest announcements, Cillian Murphy is attached to the project as an executive producer. It has not been confirmed whether he will reprise his role as Jim from the original '28 Days Later' in an acting capacity.
Danny Boyle, who directed the original '28 Days Later' in 2002, is confirmed to return to direct this sequel. This marks his first time directing a film in the franchise since the original.
The original '28 Days Later' was produced on a modest budget of approximately $8 million. The budget for the new sequel has not been disclosed, but it is expected to be significantly higher given inflation and the involvement of major stars and a studio distributor.
Participants trade shares based on their prediction of whether the film's Tomatometer score will meet or exceed a specified threshold by a certain date. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the score is at or above that number, and 'No' if it is below, with final settlement prices determined by the outcome.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 93% |
| Poly | 84% |
| Poly | 51% |
 | Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 1% |
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