Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The provider event is titled "What price will Avalanche hit in 2026?" Its saved description reads "What price will Avalanche (AVAX) hit before 2027?" [1]. The eight saved markets are binary Yes or No contracts with price thresholds from $3 to $16 [1].

The market titles use two different wordings. Some ask whether AVAX will "dip to" a level ($3, $4, $5, $6 and $7), and others ask whether it will "reach" a level ($13, $14 and $16) [1]. A dip and a reach are different conditions, so these contracts should be read one at a time rather than as a single ladder.

Each market lists an end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z, while its title refers to December 31, 2026 [1]. The listed end time is the provider's recorded field, and the title date is contract wording. The saved evidence does not show how the provider applies this difference, so readers should check the full rules on the provider page.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T08:23:40.771Z [1]. These values describe that window only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.

Yes prices in the saved set are as follows. The dip contracts are $6 at 0.52, $7 at 0.425, $5 at 0.1215, $4 at 0.1325, and $3 at 0.0835. The reach contracts are $13 at 0.24, $14 at 0.17, and $16 at 0.08 [1]. The $4 dip contract is priced slightly above the $5 dip contract, which is the reverse of the order a lower threshold would normally suggest. The evidence does not explain this, so it should be treated as a feature of this snapshot that needs checking against the provider rather than as a confirmed pricing signal.

Prices for dip and reach contracts should not be combined or averaged, since they measure different conditions. Differences between contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The saved set includes 8 of 8 markets for this event, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning states that these markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. No conclusion can be drawn about thresholds that are not listed.

The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, price history, or the reason for any price level. It also does not show how or when these contracts will resolve.

References

1. Polymarket: What price will Avalanche hit in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.