Name: Cochabamba Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
End: 2026-03-22T00:00:00.000Z

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Cochabamba Governor Election Winner (Bolivia) | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $4.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	30%
Will Esther Soria Gonzales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	20%
Will Jhon Ariel Rioja win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	14%
Will Ruth Alina Peralta win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	5%
Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	4%
Will Remigio Ancalle win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	4%
Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	4%
Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	3%
Will Wilfredo Rolando Morales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$4.92K

Volume

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About This Event

The Cochabamba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Cochabamba Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 22, 2026 (28 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Cochabamba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Cochabamba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jhon Ariel Rioja win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $839
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $543
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Remigio Ancalle win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $280
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ruth Alina Peralta win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $178
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $244
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $183
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $499
  DATA: [Yes: 29.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Wilfredo Rolando Morales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Esther Soria Gonzales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 22, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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