$924.60K
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8
$924.60K
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8
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of wh
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the number of parliamentary seats the Hungarian political party TISZA will win in the national election scheduled for April 12, 2026. The market resolves based on the final seat count TISZA secures in the 199-seat National Assembly (Országgyűlés). TISZA, officially known as TISZA Párt, is a new center-right political movement founded in 2024. It emerged as a significant challenger to the long-ruling Fidesz party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, positioning itself as a pro-European, anti-corruption alternative. The party's performance is a key indicator of whether Hungary's political landscape, dominated by Fidesz since 2010, is experiencing a genuine shift. Interest in this market stems from its function as a real-time aggregator of expectations about the viability of a new opposition force and the potential for change in Hungarian politics. Analysts view the election as a test of whether fragmented opposition parties can consolidate behind a single challenger to effectively compete with Fidesz's well-established political machine. The seat count is a direct measure of TISZA's success in translating its initial public support into concrete parliamentary representation.
Hungarian politics since 2010 has been defined by the supermajority rule of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party. Fidesz won constitutional majorities in the elections of 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, allowing it to rewrite the constitution, reshape the judiciary, and consolidate control over public media and economic institutions. The opposition has historically been fragmented among several parties, including the Socialist Party (MSZP), the Democratic Coalition (DK), Momentum, and Jobbik, preventing a unified challenge. In the 2022 election, a rare united opposition front, including six parties from across the political spectrum, still failed to defeat Fidesz, which won 135 of 199 seats. This history of opposition failure set the stage for the emergence of Péter Magyar in February 2024. His insider revelations and new party, TISZA, represent a different strategy: attempting to build a large, centralized party rather than a fragile multi-party coalition. The 2026 election will test whether this model can succeed where previous efforts have not.
The number of seats TISZA wins will determine its ability to influence Hungarian policy and the European Union's relationship with Budapest. A strong showing, particularly if it surpasses 50 seats, would establish it as the primary opposition force and a credible government-in-waiting. This could pressure the Orbán government on issues like rule of law and corruption, potentially affecting the flow of EU funds which have been frozen over democratic backsliding concerns. A weak result for TISZA, conversely, would likely reinforce Fidesz's political dominance for another cycle and could demoralize the opposition electorate. The outcome also matters for Hungary's foreign policy orientation. A sizable TISZA bloc in parliament could advocate for a more pro-European stance, potentially shifting Hungary's position on issues like support for Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between Orbán and other EU leaders. Domestically, the result will signal whether public dissatisfaction with governance and economic issues can overcome the structural advantages enjoyed by the ruling party.
As of late 2024, TISZA is actively organizing and holding rallies across Hungary to build its local structures ahead of the 2026 election. The party is attempting to register candidates in all individual constituencies, a logistical challenge for a new organization. Polling in the second half of 2024 shows TISZA consistently as the second-most popular party behind Fidesz, but with a significant gap, and ahead of the other established opposition parties. The political landscape is in flux as TISZA seeks to absorb members and voters from other opposition groups while fending off attacks from Fidesz-aligned media, which label Péter Magyar an opportunist.
TISZA is a new center-right political party founded by Péter Magyar in 2024. It advocates for anti-corruption measures, a more cooperative relationship with the European Union, and transparent governance. It positions itself as a pragmatic alternative to both the ruling Fidesz party and the more left-leaning historical opposition parties.
Hungary uses a mixed electoral system. 106 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. 93 seats are allocated from national party lists based on proportional representation, but only to parties that win at least 5% of the national list vote. A complex compensation mechanism also distributes additional seats.
It is considered unlikely that TISZA alone could win an outright majority of 100 seats. Its path to governing would almost certainly require forming a coalition with other opposition parties, such as the Democratic Coalition (DK) or Momentum, which presents a significant political challenge given their differing ideologies and past conflicts.
April 12, 2026, is the constitutionally scheduled date for the next regular parliamentary election in Hungary. Elections are held every four years. This date sets the timeline for all campaign activities, candidate registration, and polling.
Critics and international observers argue the system favors Fidesz due to gerrymandered single-member constituencies, a campaign finance system that benefits the governing party, and overwhelming dominance in state and privately-owned pro-government media, which shapes public opinion.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
8 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 22% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
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