This prediction market assesses the probability of a trilateral meeting occurring between Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump before the end of 2026. Such a meeting would represent an unprecedented diplomatic event, bringing together the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States at a time of profound geopolitical conflict. The topic's significance stems from the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, and the potential for a future U.S. administration under Donald Trump to pursue a dramatically different foreign policy approach to the conflict. Interest in this speculative scenario is driven by Trump's historical statements praising Putin, his repeated claims that he could end the war quickly, and the fundamental disagreement between Kyiv and Moscow on the very premise of negotiations, with Ukraine insisting on the restoration of its territorial integrity as a precondition. The market essentially bets on whether a constellation of political conditions, including a potential Trump election victory, a shift in battlefield dynamics, and a willingness from all three parties to engage in direct, high-stakes summitry, will align within the next few years.

Historical Context

The prospect of a U.S.-mediated negotiation between Russia and Ukraine has historical precedents, but none involving these three specific figures. The most significant attempt at a high-level settlement was the Minsk Agreements, brokered by France and Germany in 2014 and 2015 following Russia's initial invasion of Crimea and the Donbas. These agreements, which failed to end the conflict, did not involve direct U.S. presidential mediation at the leader level. During his presidency, Donald Trump's relationship with Ukraine was famously strained, culminating in the 2019 impeachment proceedings centered on his phone call with Zelenskyy, where he pressured the Ukrainian leader to investigate Joe Biden. Trump's relationship with Putin, however, has been notably deferential, including his controversial performance at the 2018 Helsinki summit where he appeared to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies regarding election interference. The last direct meeting between a U.S. president and Vladimir Putin was in June 2021, when Joe Biden met with him in Geneva. Since the 2022 invasion, all diplomatic contact has been at the ministerial or security advisor level, with no direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks.

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