Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETMentions

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Name: What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)
End: 2026-10-19T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.83K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Vol

$1.83K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.83K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.83K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Trump say "Budget" this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump say "Budget" this week?	Poly	100%
Will Trump say "Nobel" this week?	Poly	80%
Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week?	Poly	75%
Will Trump say "Pilot" this week?	Poly	75%
Will Trump say "Handsome" this week?	Poly	74%
Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" this week?	Poly	64%
Will Trump say "Swim" or "Swimming" this week?	Poly	53%
Will Trump say "Waitress" this week?	Poly	52%
Will Trump say "Muscle" or "Muscular" this week?	Poly	50%
Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?	Poly	45%
Will Trump say "Third Term" this week?	Poly	41%
Will Trump say "Khomeini" or "Khamenei" this week?	Poly	40%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$1.83K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)
**Category:** Mentions | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 19, 2026 (6 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-e

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $272
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $285
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump say "Nobel" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump say "Khomeini" or "Khamenei" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $109
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump say "Waitress" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $235
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump say "Third Term" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump say "Swim" or "Swimming" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump say "Pilot" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump say "Budget" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $87
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump say "Handsome" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump say "Muscle" or "Muscular" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETMentions