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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many Tornadoes in the US in May?

Name: How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
End: 2026-06-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in May?

Vol

$5.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will 320 to 349 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 320 to 349 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	48%
Will 380 to 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	46%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	46%
Will 230 to 259 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	44%
Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	44%
Will 350 to 379 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	43%
Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	42%
Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	41%
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?	Poly	40%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$5.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornado"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5
* **Total Liquidity:** $482
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 230 to 259 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 320 to 349 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 350 to 379 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will 380 to 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience