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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire? | Kalshi | 89% |
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire? | Kalshi | 9% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2028 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently price a Democratic victory in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race at approximately 94%. This price, consistent across platforms, indicates an overwhelming consensus that the Democratic candidate is virtually certain to win. In practical terms, a 94% probability suggests the market views a Republican victory as a remote, low-probability event. The thin trading volume of around $13,000, however, means this high-confidence price is based on limited capital at risk.
Two structural factors anchor these extreme odds. First, Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation. The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1934, and Democratic presidential candidates have won it by over 20-point margins in recent cycles. Second, the incumbent, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, is the Democratic holder of this specific seat. While he has not officially declared for re-election, running as a well-established incumbent in a deep-blue state provides a formidable advantage. Markets are pricing in the fundamental partisan lean of the electorate more than any specific candidate or campaign dynamic.
The odds could shift from their current near-certainty only under a highly specific set of circumstances. A primary catalyst would be if Senator Whitehouse decides not to seek re-election, potentially creating a more competitive open-seat primary. However, even an open seat would likely favor a Democrat in the general election. A more plausible shift could occur if a uniquely strong Republican candidate, such as a popular moderate former governor, entered the race and gained significant traction, though this would still face historical headwinds. The market will closely monitor candidate filing deadlines and any retirement announcements in 2025.
The 94% price is aligned between Polymarket and Kalshi, showing no meaningful arbitrage opportunity. This consensus across platforms reinforces the strength of the underlying thesis. The minimal spread indicates traders on both platforms are evaluating the same core political fundamentals. The thin overall volume suggests that while the directional view is unanimous among active traders, the market lacks the liquidity from larger players to rigorously test the extreme probability.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the 2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire, which will determine who holds the state's Class 2 Senate seat for the six-year term beginning in January 2027. The market resolves based on which political party's candidate is ultimately sworn in as the next Senator. The seat is currently held by Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, who was first elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2022. This election is part of the broader 2026 midterm cycle, where 33 Senate seats will be contested, and its outcome could significantly impact the balance of power in the closely divided U.S. Senate. New Hampshire has developed into a key battleground state in recent federal elections, with both parties investing heavily in its competitive races. The 2026 contest is already attracting attention from political analysts and strategists due to New Hampshire's shifting political demographics and its history of close elections. Interest in this market stems from its potential as an early indicator of national political trends and the high stakes for control of the Senate, where even a single seat can determine which party sets the legislative agenda.
New Hampshire's Senate elections have followed a distinct pattern since the early 2000s, transitioning from Republican dominance to becoming highly competitive battleground contests. From 1979 to 2009, Republicans held both of New Hampshire's Senate seats continuously, with Judd Gregg serving from 1993 to 2011 and John Sununu from 2003 to 2009. The shift began in 2008 when Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John Sununu, marking the first time a Democrat had won a New Hampshire Senate race since 1975. This was followed by Republican Kelly Ayotte's election in 2010 to replace the retiring Judd Gregg, giving the state split Senate representation. The current competitive era solidified in 2016 when Democrat Maggie Hassan narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte by just 0.14% of the vote, one of the closest Senate races in the country that year. This result gave New Hampshire two Democratic senators for the first time since the 1970s. The 2022 election saw Hassan win re-election more comfortably against Republican Chuck Morse, suggesting some Democratic consolidation in the state. Historically, New Hampshire has shown a pattern of electing moderate candidates from both parties, with successful senators often positioning themselves as independents who put state interests ahead of party loyalty. The state's tradition of retail politics, with its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, creates unique dynamics where candidates must engage extensively with voters directly.
The outcome of New Hampshire's 2026 Senate race will have significant implications for national governance and policy direction. With the Senate frequently divided by narrow margins, control of individual seats like New Hampshire's can determine which party sets the legislative agenda, confirms judicial nominees, and oversees the executive branch. A party switch in this seat could alter the balance of power on key committees that handle legislation on healthcare, education, national security, and economic policy. For New Hampshire specifically, seniority in the Senate translates to greater influence over federal spending and policy decisions affecting the state's economy, which relies heavily on healthcare, education, and tourism sectors. The election also serves as a barometer for New England's political evolution, where traditionally Republican states have shifted toward Democratic representation in federal offices. Downstream consequences include potential impacts on climate policy, given New Hampshire's vulnerability to coastal issues, and healthcare access, particularly for its aging population. The race will test whether New Hampshire's recent Democratic trend in federal elections represents a lasting realignment or a temporary phase in its historically independent voting patterns.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race. The political landscape is in a preliminary phase, with potential candidates and party operatives conducting internal polling and donor consultations. Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan has not announced whether she will seek a third term, though most political observers expect her to run again given her relatively young age for a senator at 66 and her established position in Democratic leadership. On the Republican side, Governor Chris Sununu continues to be the subject of speculation, though he has given no indication of his plans. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has identified New Hampshire as a potential pickup opportunity in 2026, particularly if Hassan retires. Both parties are monitoring demographic changes in the state, particularly the growth of the southern suburbs of Boston, which have trended Democratic in recent elections.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the nationwide midterm elections. The primary election will likely be held in September 2026, following New Hampshire's traditional primary schedule.
As of late 2024, Senator Hassan has not made a formal announcement about her 2026 plans. Most political analysts expect her to seek a third term, but she will likely make her decision public in 2025 after assessing the political landscape.
Potential Republican candidates include Governor Chris Sununu, former State Senate President Chuck Morse (the 2022 nominee), and retired General Don Bolduc. Other possibilities may emerge depending on whether Hassan seeks re-election and how the national political environment develops.
The 2022 New Hampshire Senate race between Maggie Hassan and Chuck Morse saw approximately $105 million in total spending by candidates, parties, and outside groups. This made it one of the most expensive Senate races in the country that cycle.
New Hampshire has a large percentage of independent voters (approximately 40%), a tradition of split-ticket voting, and a population that is highly engaged in politics due to its first-in-the-nation presidential primary. These factors create an environment where both parties can be competitive in statewide elections.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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