GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsWorld

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Name: Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$169.56K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Vol

$169.56K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $83.04K

Kalshi

markets · $86.52K

Price Spread

5.6%avg

max 12.5%

Arbitrage

of 7 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $169.56K

49%

51%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(7)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?ARB	24%	34%	10%
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?ARB	25%	14%	11%
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?ARB	2%	15%	12%
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?ARB	0%	4%	4%
Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	1%	2%	1%
Will Amina Mohammed be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	1%	2%	1%
Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	1%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(11)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$169.56K

Volume

Markets

4.1%

Price Gap

About This Event

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the result

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $169.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 46.69)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (14 mkts) vs Kalshi (11 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.1% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $24.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 10.1% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $30.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 12.5% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.9% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Amina Mohammed be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $957
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Olara Otunnu)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $239
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Macky Sall)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $293
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Gianni Infantino)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $430
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.4% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Bruno Donat be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Kristalina Georgieva be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

In 2027 If X is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$86.52K

Markets11

POLYMARKETWorld

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Volume$83.04K

Markets14

18 of 18

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 42.1¢No 57.9¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKET

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 40.2¢No 59.9¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKET

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 37.6¢No 62.4¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Arbitrage Opportunity: 10.1% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average28.9%

Polymarket

23.9%

Kalshi+10.1%

34.0%

Difference:10.1% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 23.9¢No 76.1¢

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rebeca Grynspan)

If Rebeca Grynspan is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Arbitrage Opportunity: 11.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average19.0%

Polymarket+11.0%

24.5%

Kalshi

13.5%

Difference:11.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rafael Grossi)

If Rafael Grossi is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement alone is sufficient to resolve the market. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Discussion

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

Polymarket

10¢

Kalshi

12¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZQ2FJB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?"></iframe>

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Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Markets (7)

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rebeca Grynspan)

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rafael Grossi)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rebeca Grynspan)

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? (Rafael Grossi)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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