Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Total Volume

$5.58K

Events

Markets

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Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Vol

$5.58K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.58K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.58K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	65%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 16 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 20 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 25 in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$5.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in Oct 2026 If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least X in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in Oct 2026

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least X in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 8 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $475
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $298
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 25 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $878
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 20 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $715
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 16 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $788
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

in Oct 2026 If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least X in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$5.58K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 5 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 8 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 10 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 12 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 14 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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30¢

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Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

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Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Markets (8)

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

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Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 5 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 14 in Oct 2026?

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