Name: IA-02 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

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IA-02 Republican Primary Winner | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	Poly	47%
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	Poly	43%
Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	Poly	13%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** IA-02 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (137 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $88
* **Total Liquidity:** $439
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $88
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

136d 12h remaining

Jun 02, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

34¢

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Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

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Events (1)

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Markets (3)

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

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Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

Will Charlie McClintock be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

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