$1.25K
1
2
$1.25K
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with t
Prediction markets currently price a Republican victory in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as a near-certainty. The leading contract, "Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?" trades at 92 cents on Polymarket, implying a 92% probability. This price suggests the market views the outcome as overwhelmingly likely, though not absolutely guaranteed. With only about $1,000 in total trading volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, indicating this is an early consensus view rather than one tested by heavy trading.
Two structural political factors heavily influence this pricing. First, Tennessee is a deeply Republican state in federal and statewide elections. The GOP has held the governor's office since 2011, and Republicans currently hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Second, the incumbent, Governor Bill Lee, is a Republican term-limited in 2026. Historical patterns in Tennessee strongly favor the incumbent party holding the governorship, especially without a powerful Democratic bench or a significant statewide electoral upset in over 15 years. The high probability primarily reflects this dominant partisan landscape rather than analysis of specific, yet-to-be-determined candidates.
The current 92% odds could shift with two primary catalysts. The first is candidate selection. A divisive Republican primary producing a weak or scandal-plagued nominee could make the general election competitive, especially if Democrats unite behind a compelling, moderate candidate with significant funding. The second is a major shift in the national political environment by late 2026. A substantial economic downturn or a potent national political wave against the GOP could impact even Tennessee's electorate. Key dates to watch will be the candidate filing deadline and primary election in 2026, which will move the market from pricing partisan fundamentals to assessing specific candidate matchups.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election, which will determine the state's chief executive for a four-year term beginning in January 2027. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with the winner succeeding current Governor Bill Lee, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot seek re-election. Tennessee has not elected a Democratic governor since Phil Bredesen left office in 2011, establishing a strong Republican trend in statewide executive politics. The race is drawing early attention as a key 2026 state-level contest, with implications for state policy on issues like education funding, healthcare, and economic development. Interest in the prediction market stems from its function as a collective forecasting tool, aggregating trader sentiment on which party will break or continue the state's recent political pattern. The market will resolve based on the certified winner by the Tennessee Secretary of State's office.
Tennessee's modern gubernatorial history shows a competitive but increasingly Republican-leaning electorate. The last Democratic governor, Phil Bredesen, served from 2003 to 2011 and was popular, winning re-election in 2006 with nearly 69% of the vote. However, the state's political landscape shifted markedly following the 2008 election cycle. Republican Bill Haslam succeeded Bredesen in 2011 and served two terms, followed by the election of fellow Republican Bill Lee in 2018. Lee won re-election decisively in 2022 with approximately 65% of the vote against Democratic nominee Jason Martin, underscoring the current Republican dominance in statewide races. This Republican streak coincides with the party securing supermajorities in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. The 2026 election will test whether this trend holds in an open-seat contest without an incumbent, a scenario that has historically provided Democrats their best opportunities in the state. The last open gubernatorial race in 2010 was won by Republican Bill Haslam with 65% of the vote.
The outcome of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election will have significant consequences for state policy and national politics. The governor appoints heads of major state agencies, shapes the budget, and holds veto power over legislation from the Republican-dominated General Assembly. Key issues like the future of Tennessee's education funding formula, the expansion of school choice programs, and the state's approach to healthcare access and Medicaid will be directly determined by the winner. Furthermore, the governor plays a crucial role in certifying presidential election results in Tennessee, a responsibility that has gained heightened scrutiny nationally. For the national Democratic and Republican parties, winning or holding the Tennessee governorship is a matter of prestige and strategic positioning, influencing fundraising and candidate recruitment for future cycles. A Democratic victory would represent a major breakthrough in the South, while a Republican hold would reinforce the party's control over a growing state with 11 electoral votes.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial race is in its earliest speculative phase. No major candidates have formally declared their candidacy, as attention is first focused on the November 2024 federal and state legislative elections. However, political operatives and donors in both parties are actively assessing potential contenders. On the Republican side, conversations are centering on figures like Secretary of State Tre Hargett, Congressman Mark Green, and possibly members of the state's congressional delegation. For Democrats, State Senator Gloria Johnson and State Representative Justin Jones are viewed as potential standard-bearers who could rally the party's base. The candidate filing deadline is not until April 2026, leaving a long runway for the field to develop.
The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. If necessary, a primary election will be held earlier in 2026, likely in August, based on the state's typical electoral calendar.
As of late 2024, no major candidates have officially declared. The field is expected to take shape through 2025, with potential Republican candidates including current officeholders like Secretary of State Tre Hargett and Democratic possibilities like State Senator Gloria Johnson.
No, Governor Bill Lee is term-limited. The Tennessee Constitution prohibits a governor from serving more than two consecutive four-year terms. Lee was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, making him ineligible to run in 2026.
A Democrat last won the Tennessee governorship in 2006, when incumbent Phil Bredesen was re-elected. The last Democratic candidate to win an open seat was Bredesen himself in 2002. No Democrat has won the office since Bredesen left in 2011.
Key issues are expected to include education funding and school choice, the state's economy and job growth, healthcare access, and infrastructure. Cultural issues, such as legislation concerning LGBTQ rights and gun policies, may also feature prominently in the campaign.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 92% |
 | Poly | 7% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZSxxo6" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Tennessee Governor Election Winner"></iframe>