Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$9.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Vol

$9.87K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.87K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.87K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	97%
Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	83%
Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	35%
Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	18%
Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	7%
Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	6%
Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	5%
Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	4%
Will there be more than 225 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	4%
Will there be more than 250 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	2%
Will there be more than 275 tornadoes in October?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$9.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In Oct 2026 If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above X , then the market resolves to Yes. The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Oct 2026

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above X , then the market resolves to Yes. The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary.""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 275 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 250 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be more than 225 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Volume$9.87K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

KALSHI

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 25 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

KALSHI

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 50 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

KALSHI

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

KALSHI

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 100 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

KALSHI

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIClimate

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Oct is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."

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24¢

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Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Markets (11)

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

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Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in October?

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