Birth tourism refers to the practice of traveling to the United States specifically to give birth, so that the child automatically acquires U.S. citizenship under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. The 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause, ratified in 1868, states that 'all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.' This has been interpreted to grant birthright citizenship to nearly anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents' immigration status. Birth tourism exploits this by attracting pregnant women, often from countries like China, Russia, and Nigeria, to give birth in the U.S., making their children citizens who can later sponsor family members for green cards. Estimates from the Center for Immigration Studies suggest that 33,000 to 40,000 children are born annually in the U.S. to temporary visitors who come primarily for childbirth. The practice has drawn bipartisan criticism, with some arguing it undermines immigration laws and creates a loophole for chain migration. Legislation to restrict birth tourism has been introduced multiple times in Congress, but none has passed both chambers. The prediction market asks whether the House of Representatives will hold a recorded vote on such legislation before 2027, specifically targeting bills that materially restrict birth tourism or birthright citizenship for children of temporary visitors. This includes roll call votes, recorded votes, yea-and-nay votes, and electronic votes, but excludes voice votes or unanimous consent. The outcome hinges on the political dynamics of the 118th and 119th Congresses, as well as potential pressure from the 2024 and 2026 elections.

Historical Context

The 14th Amendment was ratified in 1868 to grant citizenship to formerly enslaved people, overturning the Supreme Court's 1857 Dred Scott decision. The Citizenship Clause has been interpreted broadly. In the 1898 case United States v. Wong Kim Ark, the Supreme Court ruled that a child born in the U.S. to Chinese immigrant parents was a citizen, even though his parents were ineligible for naturalization under the Chinese Exclusion Act. This precedent has anchored birthright citizenship for over a century. Birth tourism emerged as a distinct phenomenon in the 2000s, facilitated by visa policies and marketing from 'maternity hotels.' In 2012, the Department of Homeland Security raided several such hotels in California, but prosecutions were limited. The issue gained political traction during the 2016 presidential campaign when Donald Trump proposed ending birthright citizenship. In 2019, the State Department updated its visa regulations to deny visas to pregnant women suspected of intending to give birth in the U.S., but enforcement remained patchy. In Congress, the Birthright Citizenship Act has been introduced in every session since 2011 but has never received a floor vote in the House. The closest it came was in 2015 when the House Judiciary Committee held a hearing but did not advance the bill. The 2023 House, with a narrow Republican majority, saw renewed interest but no vote.

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