GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	50%
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	26%
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	20%
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest, applicable partnership interests, has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests)

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest, applicable partnership interests, has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the leg"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Volume$0.00

Markets4

4 of 4

Sort:

KALSHI

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the leg

KALSHI

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the leg

KALSHI

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the leg

KALSHI

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the leg

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

25¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZZcUxa" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the carried interest loophole be closed?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Markets (4)

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget