Who will Trump pardon? | PredictPedia

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42 markets tracked

Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(42)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	61%
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	61%
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	53%
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	51%
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	46%
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	44%
Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	43%
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	41%
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	40%
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	39%
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	39%
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	37%
Will Prakazrel Michel receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	36%
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	35%
Will Kisean Anderson receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	34%
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	34%
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	33%
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	32%
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	28%
Will Tou Thao receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Ty Garbin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Justin Sun receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	25%
Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	24%
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	24%
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	23%
Will Leon Stanton receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	23%
Will Jeffery Williams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	23%
Will Joe Giudice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	23%
Will Safaree Samuels receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	22%
Will Jose Muyet receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	22%
Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	22%
Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	22%
Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	21%
Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	19%
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	18%
Will Sebastian Telfair receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	10%
Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will Trump pardon?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 21, 2029

If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that red

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tim Leissner has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $144.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $246
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $714
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Tou Thao receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ty Garbin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sebastian Telfair receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $256
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Safaree Samuels receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $24.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $863
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Prakazrel Michel receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Leon Stanton receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Kisean Anderson receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Jeffery Williams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Justin Sun receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Jose Muyet receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Joe Giudice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $172
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $9.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $574
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $30.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $14.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 22, 2029): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

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Events (1)

Who will Trump pardon?

Markets (42)

Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

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Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will Trump pardon?

Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?

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