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Before Jan 21, 2029 If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that red
Prediction markets currently assign a 59% probability that Donald Trump will grant himself a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a self-pardon as more likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. The moderate liquidity, with $104,000 in volume spread across 39 related pardon markets, suggests informed speculation rather than casual betting. The market's structure includes an early close condition, meaning it would resolve immediately upon the issuance of such a pardon.
Two primary factors are elevating the probability above 50%. First, there is significant historical and legal precedent for presidents to issue controversial pardons at the end of their terms, often for political allies or to address perceived injustices. Trump's own first-term pardon of Roger Stone and commutation for Michael Flynn set a clear pattern of using this power for close associates. Second, Trump faces multiple ongoing federal criminal cases. The market is pricing in the scenario where, if convicted or facing imminent sentencing, he would utilize the pardon power to shield himself from federal consequences, despite the untested and constitutionally debated nature of a self-pardon.
The odds are highly sensitive to developments in Trump's legal battles and electoral prospects. A conviction in a federal case before the 2024 election could cause the "Yes" probability to spike, as it would create immediate pressure for a self-pardon. Conversely, an electoral loss in November 2024 would likely cause the probability to plummet, as he would lose the pardon power after January 20, 2025. A decisive Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity or the legality of self-pardons, which could occur during its current term, would also dramatically reshape the market's calculus. The timeline is constrained, making the period between a potential election victory and inauguration in January 2025 a critical window for this event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether specific individuals will receive presidential pardons, commutations, or reprieves during Donald Trump's potential second term, which would run from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified person receives any form of presidential clemency for federal crimes before the January 21, 2029 deadline. Presidential pardons are executive powers granted under Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, allowing presidents to grant clemency for federal offenses, which can include full pardons, sentence commutations, or reprieves. The topic has gained significant attention due to Donald Trump's history of controversial pardons during his first term and his ongoing legal challenges, which create speculation about potential reciprocal pardons for allies or himself. Recent developments include Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts in New York in May 2024, ongoing federal cases, and his public statements suggesting he might pardon individuals involved in the January 6 Capitol attack. This market allows participants to speculate on specific individuals' likelihood of receiving clemency based on political connections, legal exposure, and Trump's historical pardon patterns.
The presidential pardon power originates from Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, which states the president 'shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.' This authority is nearly unlimited for federal crimes and has been used controversially throughout American history. President Gerald Ford's 1974 pardon of Richard Nixon established the modern precedent for preemptive pardons before criminal charges were filed, while President Bill Clinton's 2001 pardon of financier Marc Rich demonstrated how last-minute pardons could generate controversy. During his first term, Donald Trump established distinct pardon patterns, granting clemency to 237 individuals including 143 pardons and 94 commutations. His most notable pardons included political allies convicted in the Russia investigation (Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Michael Flynn), controversial figures (Joe Arpaio, Dinesh D'Souza), and rappers (Kodak Black, Lil Wayne). Trump's pardon of Manafort in December 2020 specifically demonstrated his willingness to use clemency for associates convicted of crimes related to their work for his campaign. Historically, presidents have granted an average of 409 pardons and commutations per term since 1900, with Barack Obama granting 1,927 clemencies (mostly commutations for drug offenses) and George W. Bush granting 200. The January 21, 2029 deadline in this prediction market aligns with the end of a potential second Trump term, a period when presidents historically issue increased pardons during their final days in office.
Presidential pardon decisions in a potential second Trump term would have significant implications for the American justice system and political norms. The use of clemency for political allies, particularly those convicted of crimes related to the January 6 attack or election interference, could undermine public confidence in the equal application of justice and establish precedents for future presidents to shield associates from accountability. Such actions might also affect ongoing investigations and prosecutions, as potential witnesses could anticipate pardons and become less cooperative with authorities. Beyond immediate legal consequences, pardon patterns signal a president's view of governmental accountability and the rule of law, potentially influencing how future administrations handle similar situations. For financial markets and prediction platforms, these pardon decisions create measurable events that allow participants to speculate on political outcomes, while for the broader public, they represent tests of constitutional powers that balance executive discretion against judicial independence. The outcomes could also impact electoral politics by mobilizing or demoralizing voter bases concerned about accountability for political violence or perceived weaponization of justice systems.
As of June 2024, Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee campaigning for the November 2024 election. He was convicted on 34 felony counts in New York on May 30, 2024, and faces additional federal charges in Florida and Washington D.C., though these cases face procedural delays. Trump has made multiple public statements suggesting he would consider pardons for January 6 defendants, calling them 'hostages' during campaign rallies. Several Trump associates including Peter Navarro are currently serving prison sentences, while others like Steve Bannon face pending appeals. The Supreme Court is considering presidential immunity questions that could affect Trump's federal cases, potentially influencing his pardon calculus. Prediction markets currently show varying probabilities for different individuals receiving clemency, with highest probabilities for January 6 defendants and former advisors convicted of contempt of Congress.
The Constitution does not explicitly prohibit self-pardons, but no president has attempted one. The Department of Justice issued a 1974 memo stating presidents cannot pardon themselves, but this opinion is not legally binding. The Supreme Court has never ruled on this question, making it an unresolved constitutional issue.
A pardon fully forgives a crime and restores civil rights, while a commutation only reduces a sentence without eliminating the conviction. Pardons are typically for people who have completed sentences, while commutations are for those still serving time. Both are forms of executive clemency under Article II of the Constitution.
Presidential pardons for federal crimes are generally not reviewable by courts, as established in the 1866 Supreme Court case Ex parte Garland. However, courts can review whether the pardon was properly issued and whether it applies to specific charges. Accepting a pardon does require an admission of guilt according to 1915 Supreme Court precedent.
No, presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes. State crimes can only be pardoned by state governors or through state clemency processes. This distinction is particularly relevant for individuals like Donald Trump who face both federal and state charges.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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39 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 59% |
Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 57% |
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 53% |
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 49% |
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 41% |
Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 39% |
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 37% |
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 37% |
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 36% |
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 34% |
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will Kisean Anderson receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will Prakazrel Michel receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 30% |
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 27% |
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 25% |
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 25% |
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 22% |
Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will Tou Thao receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Ty Garbin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Safaree Samuels receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Leon Stanton receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Jeffery Williams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Justin Sun receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Jose Muyet receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Joe Giudice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will DeAndre Way receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Do Kwon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Daniel Hale receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 19% |
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will Sebastian Telfair receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 3% |
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