This prediction market focuses on forecasting the most popular baby boy name in the United States for 2025, as determined by the Social Security Administration (SSA). The SSA compiles its annual list from the Social Security card applications for births occurring within a given calendar year, making it the definitive national record of naming trends. The list, typically published in May of the following year, ranks names based on raw frequency, providing a clear, data-driven answer to the question. This market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined name (X) matches the SSA's #1 ranked boy's name for 2025. Interest in this topic stems from the intersection of cultural analysis, social trends, and personal curiosity. Baby names reflect broader societal shifts, from popular culture and celebrity influence to evolving linguistic preferences and ethnic diversity. The annual release of the SSA list generates significant media coverage and public discussion, as people track the rise and fall of names like Liam, Noah, and Oliver. For predictors, the challenge involves analyzing multi-year trend data, identifying names with sustained momentum, and assessing potential disruptors from entertainment or current events. The market's closure is tied directly to the official SSA publication, expected around May 2026, providing a clear resolution mechanism based on authoritative government data.

Historical Context

The Social Security Administration began recording baby name data with the inception of the Social Security program in 1935, but it did not systematically publish popularity rankings until much later. The agency first released a list of the top 1,000 names for 1997, followed by a retrospective list going back to 1880. This created a valuable longitudinal dataset for researchers. For most of the 20th century, the top spot changed relatively frequently. Names like Robert, John, Michael, and David each had multi-year reigns. The modern era, however, has seen longer streaks. Michael dominated for over four decades, holding the #1 position from 1954 to 1998 except for 1960, when David briefly took the lead. This established a pattern of extreme stability at the very top. The 21st century introduced more volatility initially, with Jacob leading for 14 years (1999-2012), followed by Noah's four-year run. Liam's current seven-year streak, beginning in 2017, suggests a return to the stability seen in the late 20th century. Historically, a name that falls to #2, as Noah did, rarely reclaims the top spot, making its potential comeback in 2025 a notable historical event if it occurs.

Frequently Asked Questions