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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Vol

PM $431.9K

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Polymarket

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $431.9K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Related prediction markets

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketFinance
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

PM $2.04M
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 28%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes 21.1%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes 16.2%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
PolymarketKalshiFinance
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

PM $90.8K · K 41.2K contracts

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Kalshi: Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 81%Rules differK Yes 82%

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Kalshi: Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 17.2%Rules differK Yes 14%

Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Kalshi: Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 0.6%Rules differK Yes 2%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
PolymarketFinance
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

PM $11.2K
Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?Yes 42.3%
Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?Yes 14.7%
Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO?Yes 12%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
PolymarketFinance
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

PM $409.2K
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?Yes 23%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?Yes 22.4%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?Yes 14.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Jul 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

PM $183.5K
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Yes 44.6%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes 25%
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?Yes 8%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

PM $545.4K
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes 59.5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes 25.1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes 6.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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