Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?

Name: Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
End: 2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?

Vol

$8.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Poly	97%
Marco Rubio Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Poly	3%
Donald Trump Jr. Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Poly	1%
Ron DeSantis Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Poly	1%
Tucker Carlson Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$8.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (20 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other".

An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $59.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Marco Rubio Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $607
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Ron DeSantis Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Tucker Carlson Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $566
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Donald Trump Jr. Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $434
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics