Hawaii Senate winner? (2028) | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

Total Volume

$5.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

Vol

$5.57K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.57K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.57K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?	Kalshi	83%
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Hawaii?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$5.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2028 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Hawaii for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Hawaii for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Hawaii for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win the Senate race in Hawaii?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

49¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZlgDLj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)